Oil tanker rates spike as US push into Venezuela redraws flows

[HONG KONG] The shipping market is being shaken up by Washington’s intervention in Venezuela, as the prospect of more oil being exported to the US boosts regional tanker rates to their highest level in almost two years.

After US forces seized Nicolas Maduro and Washington asserted its control over the nation’s energy industry, more crude from the Opec member will be available for American refiners, likely to be delivered on mid-sized tankers. In a knock-on effect, more US-produced West Texas Intermediate crude will be pushed to Europe on the same type of vessel, squeezing availability.

The global oil industry, including producers, refiners, shippers and traders, is working through the consequences of Washington’s move earlier this month, which saw special forces snatch the country’s leader and haul him to the US. US President Donald Trump has put control of the nation’s oil industry at the heart of the operation, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying it plans to direct future sales of Venezuelan crude “indefinitely”.

For shipowners, that means higher rates on some routes as current and future oil flows are redirected, with Washington starting to ease sanctions on Venezuela. Before the US intervention, the bulk of the South American nation’s exports were shipped to China, carried on so-called dark-fleet vessels.

“The imminent re-direction of Venezuelan crude oil flows from China to the US. Gulf seems to be causing a structural change in the Aframax segment,” said Georgios Sakellariou, a chartering analyst at Signal Maritime, a vessel-pool management company, referring to the mid-sized vessels that haul about 700,000 barrels. “This is a typical trend that underscores how geopolitical developments become shipping reality.”

On the route from the Caribbean to the US Gulf, known by the Baltic Exchange as TD9, prices reached US$78,795 per day on Wednesday (Jan 14), the highest since early 2024. Meanwhile, on TD25, which tracks the US Gulf to the major European refining hub in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp, rates rose for five days to hit US$64,404.

Other routes are also seeing gains, given the lack of immediately-available vessels in the region. On TD26, which tracks fees for tankers hauling oil from the east coast of Mexico to the US Gulf, rates reached reached US$90,681 on Wednesday, after spiking 21 per cent the day before.

Luring tankers

Prospects for more Venezuelan crude going to the US are also luring tankers from other regions, with some ready to sail empty – or ballasting – across oceans to take on cargoes from South America.

Among them, the Front Siena is currently ballasting west across the Atlantic from Spain, declaring that it’s headed to Guyana, near Venezuela, and waiting for orders, brokers say. Elsewhere, Mare Siculum is also traversing the Atlantic empty and has been fixed for a route from the east coast of Mexico to Europe.

Shortly after the US operation, President Trump said that Venezuela would relinquish as much as 50 million barrels of oil to the US, declaring it would be sold with the proceeds benefiting both countries. He also convened a meeting at the White House for senior industry executives to press the case for them to commit capital to the country to rehabilitate its run-down energy infrastructure.

Despite that push, the outlook for the nation’s supplies remains cloudy. While the head of ExxonMobil called the nation currently “uninvestable”, flagging challenges to reviving supplies, consultant Enverus has forecast that Venezuela’s crude output could surge by roughly 50 per cent over the coming decade. BLOOMBERG