Pierre Poilievre’s popularity may have hit a ceiling, pollster says

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This week, John Ivison is joined by Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, to take a deep dive into the organization’s latest poll of the federal political landscape.

The poll suggests the Conservatives have 40 per cent support, compared to the Liberals on 23 per cent and the NDP on 21 per cent.

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But Kurl pointed out that the results of the next election will depend entirely on what is happening at the time on the number one issue that is dominating the mindset of voters — the cost of living.

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“That is 99 problems all rolled up into one and it all comes down to household economics. We often talk about the economy but to Canadians … what it comes down to is people are paying out more, bringing in less, and stressed as hell about it. And as long as that continues, and as long as Canadians do not find the relief that they’re looking for, (it is) driving past Liberal voters away from the Trudeau Liberals and into the arms of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives,” she said.

Any change in the political landscape will depend on people starting to feel things improving.

“If people started to feel it — if you’ve recently renegotiated your mortgage or you’re on a variable rate and all of a sudden for those on a variable rate, those hundreds if not thousands of dollars a month that they’re paying out extra starts to ease — then absolutely, we could then find ourselves into a dual question equation, if you will.

“So right now, Canadians are vastly annoyed, they’re blaming the Liberals over cost of living, and the answer in their minds at the moment is Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. If that starts to ease, the two questions then become, has it eased enough? And, (if it has) is there a resurgence of other issues that have really been simmering on the back burner — climate change, health care, other areas where the Liberals will probably feel like they can fight from more of a politically advantageous position?”

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The Angus Reid poll points out that, while Justin Trudeau is chosen as best prime minister by just one in six voters, he was in a similar position in mid-2015, behind Conservative leader Stephen Harper and the NDP’s Thomas Mulcair. The poll also said Trudeau’s approval rating is just one in three, with two in three voters disapproving of his performance. But the Angus Reid Institute pointed out that he was at a similar level in 2019, at the height of the SNC Lavalin scandal.

Ivison asked if this time might be different?

“This year is going to mark our 10th birthday. So, we’ve got all of this lovely tracking data. And we can tell you where the prime minister was in 2015. He was nowhere. He literally sort of came out of the political hinterland to take advantage of a campaign situation. Similarly, he went into 2019 as the underdog and went into 2021 as the underdog. I’ve always said that the Liberal Party are experts in wedgeology. They find that wedge issue and they find a way to make voters who may be unhappy with them, who are looking for an alternative, to come back and go: ‘You know what, I’m going to hold my nose and vote for you because I don’t like the Conservative alternative,’” Koul said.

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“This is where we need to focus a little bit because people tend to only pay attention to that top line number. They only pay attention to that 40 per cent, which, yes, if that was an election today, that would be a majority government…. But it’s important to point out that while Pierre Poilievre’s party is surging, he himself, in terms of his own personal popularity, is hitting a bit of an upper ceiling. He is not getting the kind of swooning popularity numbers that Brian Mulroney had in ‘84, or indeed, Justin Trudeau had at the end of that campaign in 2015.”

Kurl said Poilievre continues to have a challenge with negative favourability ratings, especially with women. “So again, when it boils down to almost a single issue for swing voters, which is affordability (Poilievre wins). But if you solve that, it becomes a different election.”

She said Conservative support remains fragile.

“If you look at some of our recent past polling, one of the things you’ll find is that the ceiling for the Conservatives in the best possible scenario, on the best day could be as high as 50 plus per cent. On the worst day, however, it sinks to 27 per cent.

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“It’s important for everyone to remember that the country in terms of vote intention skews more left and centre left than right and centre right. It’s just that’s the math.

“If the Liberals are able to really square and frame this election as some sort of existential battle between the heart of the right and the heart of the left, they will be able to count on, number one, a lot of disaffected and soft Liberal voters possibly coming back, but also drawing NDP votes. That’s a bad day for Jagmeet Singh. But that is how (the Liberals) found and carved a path to victory over the last two elections.”

That said, Kurl said a “four-peat” election victory is extremely tough, especially under the same leader. She said there is no polling evidence to suggest that the Liberals under Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland or former bank governor, Mark Carney, would attract swing voters in large numbers.

“The big question then becomes, is the appetite for change something that is so strong that it supersedes any reservations that centre and, centre left voters may have in casting a ballot for Pierre Poilievre or seeing Pierre Polievre and the Conservatives in government,” Koul said.

“It seems by all accounts today, in March of 2024, that the next election, whenever it happens, is more likely to be a ‘change’ election than not a change election. But would it be a majority or a minority? Will disaffected, angry, annoyed Liberals continue to park their votes with the Conservatives or will they have a moment of a gut check?

“We focus a lot on: ‘Can Justin Trudeau do it? Can he do a four-peat? Can he be the Comeback Kid?’ (But) much of this will actually be a referendum on Pierre Poilievre.”

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