Liberals face four more byelections in races this year

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OTTAWA – The Liberals’ stunning defeat in the Toronto—St-Paul’s byelection this week could be just the beginning of a year of pain for the party: several more byelections are expected; all of them could happen before 2024 is over.

The Liberals currently hold three of the four seats, with some previously considered safe for the party. But so was Toronto—St. Paul’s, which the party held onto comfortably for 30 years until this week.

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It may be that there are no longer any secure seats for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s party, which has been way behind the Conservatives in national polls for months. These are the looming battlegrounds that could either signal a turnaround for the Liberals, or add to their growing sense of demise.

LaSalle—Émard—Verdun

Previously: Liberal

Expected byelection: Before Sept. 17

Since 2015, ex-Liberal MP and former justice minister David Lametti has had the central Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun in a chokehold.

Lametti and the Liberals have never won less than 42.9 per cent of the vote in the riding, which was created after an electoral redrawing in 2013. In the 2021 federal election, Lametti garnered over 20-per-cent more votes than the runner-up, Bloc Québécois candidate Raphaël Guérard.

Lametti resigned in January after being cut out of Trudeau’s cabinet. By law, Trudeau must announce a byelection date by July 30 and it then must take place five to seven weeks after the announcement.

The question now: Is the riding loyal to the Liberals? Or was it loyal to Lametti himself? The former is most likely, the latter is a small possibility.

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“I would say that’s probably a safe seat for the Liberals to retain,” said Andrew Enns, executive vice president of pollster Leger.

One Liberal source said they’re not as concerned about losing the riding as they were with Toronto—St Paul’s and that the party has a “solid” team in Quebec. But the Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate for the Montreal riding. Neither the BQ nor the Conservative party has announced candidates, either.

All signs point to the Liberals’ main challenger being New Democrat candidate Craig Sauvé, a longtime party member and former NDP staffer turned Montreal city councillor in 2013. Sauvé began campaigning after he was nominated as a candidate in late April.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was in the riding this week to campaign with Sauvé, and one can expect the party will throw significant resources — both money and people — at the campaign in the run-up to the byelection this summer.

Elmwood—Transcona

Previously: NDP

Expected byelection: Before Nov. 3

This race may be less of a test of the Liberal party’s fortunes the an indication of the Conservatives’ strengths.

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The suburban Winnipeg riding has been an NDP stronghold since its creation in 1988, with two generations of the Blaikie family representing the riding. Former MP Bill Blaikie represented the riding from 1988 until 2008, and his son Daniel Blaikie has held the seat since 2015.

The riding went to the Conservatives only once between 2011 and 2015, when former prime minister Stephen Harper won a majority government, and the Liberals have rarely been competitive in the riding. Daniel Blaikie resigned the seat in March, moving to take a job with Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau must call the byelection by the end of September.

Enns said the riding could be very competitive without a Blaikie on the ballot and with the message Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has been using to appeal to some of the NDP’s traditional working-class base.

“The polling would indicate that Pierre Poilievre’s message of common-sense conservatism, and the back-to-basics kind of approach, seems to be radiating with those types of blue-collar NDP supporters.”

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Blaikie won the riding in 2021 by more than 20 points, but recent polling has indicated a strong Conservative lead overall in Manitoba.

The NDP has picked Leila Dance as their candidate in the riding. She previously ran a local business-improvement association and won a contested nomination to become the candidate.

The Liberals and the Conservatives have yet to name their candidates.

NDP MP Peter Julian said he believes the party’s message is resonating in the riding and thinks New Democrats will hold the seat.

“They (voters) see the NDP getting things done and making a difference for people,” he said.

The riding, like many in the Prairies, British Columbia and northern Ontario, is typically a battle between NDP and Conservative candidates. Enns said the same way many Liberal MPs may have looked with worry at Toronto—St. Paul’s, the NDP likely feels nervous about the popularity of the Conservatives taking Elmwood away.

“From the Conservative perspective, I think when they look at their opportunities there’s definitely some orange patches on there that they think they can make up ground on,” Enns said.

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Julian said when he talks to NDP supporters in the riding, they’re nervous about what the Conservatives will do to government supports they rely on. He said they may be telling pollsters they support the Conservatives, but that will change when faced with the party’s proposals.

“I’d say the Conservative support is a mile wide and an inch deep.”

Cloverdale—Langley City

Previously: Liberal

Expected byelection: Before Jan. 4, 2025

The most daunting challenge for the Liberals could be holding onto the riding of Cloverdale—Langley City, in British Columbia’s Lower Mainland.

The riding has been hard fought between the Liberals and Conservatives for the last three elections, with only narrow margins of victory for either party. MP John Aldag announced he would be stepping down and formally resigned at the end of May. He is seeking to run for the British Columbia NDP in the provincial election expected this fall.

Trudeau will have to announce the date of the byelection before the end of November.

In 2021, Aldag and the Liberals won the riding by about three points, roughly the same margin that decided the race in 2019 when Conservative Tamara Jansen won, and has announced she will run again. It has become a much fiercer battleground over the years than it was in 2015, when Aldag won the riding by nearly 10 percentage points.

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The NDP have finished a distant third in all of those elections.

“I think it’ll be hugely challenging for the Liberals to hold that seat,” Enns said.

Leger’s public polling had the Conservatives with a 26-per-cent lead in British Columbia, with the Liberals in third place. By comparison, the Conservatives had a 18-per-cent lead in Ontario where they pulled off the surprise upset in Toronto—St. Paul’s.

Halifax

Previously: Liberal

Expected byelection: Unknown

Liberal MP Andy Fillmore announced in mid-June that he will be stepping down as MP, and he is expected to make a run at becoming mayor of the Halifax. He hasn’t officially resigned his seat as an MP, so the exact timing of the byelection is unknown.

Fillmore first won the seat in 2015, upsetting long-time NDP MP Megan Leslie, and he held onto it in 2019 and 2021 with comfortable margins. The Conservatives have not traditionally been competitive in the riding, finishing third or even fourth.

Enns said that with the right candidate the Liberals could likely hold onto this riding. He said that while public polling has the Conservatives ahead in Atlantic Canada, that won’t necessarily be reflected in the Halifax riding.

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“When the Tories are doing better in Atlantic Canada, it tends to coalesce into New Brunswick and to some degree northern Nova Scotia,” Enns said.

The NDP’s Julian said his party has already nominated its candidate, Lisa Roberts, who ran for the party in 2021.

He said the party is putting a lot of work in on the ground to get out the voters they need.

“Generally, we don’t get high turnouts from NDP supporters during byelection campaigns. So we’re working hard in all three areas to make sure that our members, our supporters, come out and vote,” Julian said.

National Post

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