Trudeau faces two more byelection tests in September

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OTTAWA – Voters will get two more chances to judge the Liberal government after the prime minister called byelections for two ridings this September.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the two byelections, one in Winnipeg’s Elmwood—Transcona and another in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun riding, with election day set for Sept. 16.

Former justice minister David Lametti resigned his seat in February opening the way for the byelection in Montreal. Trudeau had 180 days to call the election and waited until almost the last possible moment.

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The riding has only existed in anything close to its current format since 2015, but in three elections Lametti won handily every time. He had a nearly 20 per cent margin of victory in those campaigns, making the riding seem to be a safe Liberal seat.

But the summer began with a safe Liberal seat falling to Conservative hands in Toronto—St. Paul’s. In St. Paul’s, the margin of victory for the Liberals was often even higher than what Lametti captured in LaSalle. The St. Paul’s defeat lead to some calls for Trudeau’s resignation, which he has so far declined to offer.

Andrew Enns, executive vice president with Leger Polling, said the two ridings may seem similar, but Quebec has not embraced Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as resoundingly as the rest of the country.

“In the rest of Canada, Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives have taken off like wildfire. They have become, basically, the proxy for if you’re not happy with the government,” he said. “In Quebec, that hasn’t been the case.”

Enns said the Liberals biggest challenge in the race is likely to be the Bloc. In Leger’s last poll on federal results, the Bloc had 31 per cent support, to the Liberals 29 per cent and the Conservatives 23 per cent.

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Overall, that same poll showed the Conservatives having a 14-point lead nationally with 41 per cent of voters supporting the party.

The poll was done with an online sampling process that doesn’t have a traditional margin of error, but interviewed 1607 people and would be roughly equivalent to a margin of error of 2.45 per cent 19 times out of 20.

David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, said losing LaSalle would be a major blow to Trudeau personally, as not just a safe Liberal seat, but one in his home city.

“It’s another test for the Liberals, in the Prime Minister’s backyard, right in in urban Montreal,” he said. “If St. Paul’s wasn’t fully catastrophic, this would be to Justin Trudeau’s argument that he is the best able to lead the party.”

Coletto agreed that LaSalle is just not the same riding as St. Paul’s. He said he doesn’t expect the Conservatives to suddenly be competitive here, but the NDP could mount a real challenge if voters who are uncomfortable with the Bloc rally around them.

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“I think there’s a chance they could win this and what we know and what the evidence is so far, but it requires a close, three way race for the NDP to pull it out,” he said.

Trudeau selected Laura Palestini, a Montreal city councillor to run for the party in LaSalle. The Conservatives, who have usually finished fourth in the riding, have attracted business owner Louis Ialenti.

The NDP are running another city councillor Craig Sauvé and the Bloc Québécois are running former political staffer Louis-Philippe Sauvé.

The riding has traditionally featured the NDP and the Bloc nearly tied for second place. Enns said with the NDP vote down that could tilt more support to the Bloc.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland was asked about the byelections on Monday and said the government is not focused on polls.

“Our MPs are caucus, our government, we are really focused on delivering for Canada and Canadians. We’re focused on delivering on housing, that’s what we’re here to talk about today. We’re focused on delivering to make life more affordable. We’re focused on delivering economic growth.”

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The Liberals are unlikely to be a major factor in Elmwood—Transcona. The byelection there was triggered with the resignation of NDP MP Daniel Blaikie, who has held the riding since 2015. The riding has been in the NDP column almost uninterrupted since 1988 when it was created and was represented previously by Bill Blaikie, Daniel’s father.

The Conservatives are usually in second place, having only won the riding in 2011 when Stephen Harper won his only majority government.

“Right now, Conservatives are polling better than they were in 2011, so I think it actually is one to keep an eye on,” said Enns.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre held a large rally in the riding over the weekend.

Many ridings in the Prairies and northern Ontario come down to close contests between the NDP and the Conservatives. Enns said the challenge for the Conservatives will be to link the NDP to the unpopular Liberal government.

“This will be an interesting test for the Conservative messaging on, it’s not just a Liberal government. It’s a Liberal-NDP government that is creating all these problems,” he said.

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Coletto said the NDP will have to make a strong push to hold onto their riding. The party has been polling nationally around 20 per cent of the popular vote, but he said, in actual byelections, they have missed even that low mark.

“When those byelections that have come over the last two years have come up, the NDP has deeply underperformed,” he said.

The NDP have chosen Leila Dance, the executive director of a local business association as their candidate, while the Conservatives are running Colin Reynolds, a construction electrician.

The Liberals have teacher and union leader Ian MacIntyre as their candidate.

Enns said having NDP Premier Wab Kinew elected provincially in Manitoba last year could be a boost for the federal party’s chances.

“One thing that probably cuts in favour of the NDP in Elmwood Transcona, is that provincially here the NDP government is very popular,” he said.

National Post
rtumilty@postmedia.com

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