THE Singapore dollar extended gains to an 18-month high versus the greenback as forecasts for the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to keep a tighter monetary policy relative to the Federal Reserve this year favoured the Asian currency.
Singapore’s dollar rose as much as 0.2 per cent to 1.3154 per US dollar on Wednesday (Aug 14), the highest since Feb 2, 2023. The currency is set for its biggest monthly gain in August since 2023 and is the second-best performer among Asian currencies so far this year after the Malaysian ringgit and the Hong Kong dollar.
MAS is seen easing only next year, while bets are increasing for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as September, a move that reduces the appeal of the US dollar. A gauge of Asian currency performance jumped to the highest since March as a retreating greenback boosted exchange rates across the region.
“The trade-weighted SGD will continue to be supported by MAS’ existing appreciation setting which is unlikely to change this year, unless we get a US recession,” said Alvin Tan, head of Asian currency strategy at Royal Bank of Canada in Singapore.
Singapore now sees the economy growing this year by between 2 to 3 per cent, narrowing its forecast from an earlier projection of 1 to 3 per cent. A July non-oil domestic exports report due Friday is expected to show a slight rebound, after registering five straight months of contraction.
The Singapore dollar outperformed Asian peers in 2022 and 2023 but its fortunes could change this year.
“The Singapore dollar may find it harder to end 2024 at the top of the Asia FX league table, as the initiation of Fed rate cuts could buoy risk-on sentiment and the Singapore dollar tends to underperform in a broad US dollar downtrend,” Stephen Chiu and Chunyu Zhang, strategists at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote in a note this week.
RBC’s Tan also sees Singapore’s currency weakening to 1.35 per US dollar by year end on expectations for a greenback rebound. A median estimate in a Bloomberg survey forecasts the Singapore dollar at 1.34 over the same period. BLOOMBERG
