A new Messenger/Harris poll has Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley leading President Joe Biden in a one-on-one matchup, 41% to 37%.
In the poll, conducted from Nov. 27 to Dec. 1 among 2,018 registered voters, Biden lost independents to Haley by a whopping 10% margin.
But in the same poll, Haley trailed former President Donald Trump by a wide margin among Republicans, roughly 76% of whom said they would vote for Trump over Haley.
Among independents, Haley won 40% support to Trump’s 36%. The same was not true for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who lost independents to Trump by a 10% margin.
“The Haley phenomenon is driven by moderate Republicans, independents and disaffected voters,” Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX, told The Messenger. “She beats Biden handily in a general election because of this but still has a lot of ground to make up with Republicans.”
Harris gets a ‘B’ grade for accuracy and leans Republican, according to pollster ratings from FiveThirtyEight. Polls also point to age as a growing factor in the upcoming election, and it is sure to be an issue in Wednesday’s fourth GOP debate.
Haley, 51, compared to Trump, 77, has made a point of calling for “a new generation” of leadership. The line seems to be effective against Biden, 81, even if it has yet to seriously dent Trump’s lead in polls.
Still, some political analysts say Haley is gaining steam in key primary states. On Nov. 28, Americans for Prosperity Action (AFPA) endorsed Haley, giving her a significant boost in Iowa, where the group has had a presence for over 10 years, according to the Des Moines Register. AFPA is the grassroots political wing of the libertarian advocacy group founded by the Koch brothers.
“I think the Americans for Prosperity endorsement of Nikki Haley represents the cavalry coming for her in Iowa and other early states,” Iowa Republican strategist Jimmy Centers told the Register.
That win for Haley could undermine the DeSantis team’s strategy, which has appeared to bet heavily on a strong showing in Iowa by vowing to visit all 99 counties.
Yet for both Haley and DeSantis, the chief obstacle remains Trump, who despite dodging debate appearances and racking up indictments appears to have a significant edge among likely Republican voters. Trump is facing four indictments and 91 felony charges, ranging from falsifying business records to conspiracy to defraud the United States.
Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges. But Haley has worked into her stump speeches a plea to voters to “leave behind the chaos and drama,” a thinly-veiled reference to the cable news catnip that Trump represents. Voters in some early primary states appear to have gotten the message.
“We voted for Trump the last time,” New Hampshire resident Christine Rheaume told The Boston Globe last week. “Now I just wish he’d go away.”
