ASIAN markets fluctuated on Wednesday as traders struggled to track another record day on Wall Street, with focus squarely on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.
Decision-makers are widely expected to hold interest rates at a two-decade high but the real source of interest is their “dot plot” of projections for how many cuts they see this year.
At the turn of 2024, markets had factored in up to six but a spate of strong data – particularly pointing to sticky inflation – has forced investors to revise that down to three.
That is in line with the Fed’s December projection but there are worries policymakers could be spooked into lowering their outlook to just two – or 50 basis points.
Some market participants are also concerned that the first reduction – viewed by many as June – could be put back.
“It would only take two participants to move their dots to move the median to 50 basis points of cuts for this year,” warned Citigroup’s Veronica Clark.
“We are thinking the Fed is OK with where they are now. But it is definitely the risk.”
Still, Wall Street investors remained upbeat, pushing all three main indexes higher on the back of a tech rally, with the S&P 500 chalking up another record.
“Since the start of this year, expectations about 2024 central bank easing have been pared back materially,” JP Morgan economists wrote in a recent investor note.
“But that has not disrupted the general trend toward an easing in global financial conditions.”
Asian dealers were a little less enthusiastic, with markets swinging through the morning session.
Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Manila were slightly higher but there were losses in Jakarta and Wellington.
The yen weakened further after the Bank of Japan suggested that Tuesday’s interest rate hike – its first in 17 years – would not likely be followed by any more any time soon.
The move marked the end of the BoJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy, which was an outlier as other central banks ramped up rates to combat surging inflation.
Speculation that the Fed could revise down its own rate cut projections was also putting pressure on the Japanese currency.
“Looking ahead, the Bank will likely keep its policy stance accommodative in the near term, unless it sees risks of significant upward pressure on underlying inflation,” said Duncan Wrigley and Kelvin Lam at Pantheon Macroeconomics. AFP
