GOLDMAN Sachs Group raised its forecasts for the dollar versus the yen, expecting a benign macro setup to weigh on the Japanese currency in coming months.
The firm now expects USD/JPY to trade around 155, 150, and 145 in three, six and 12 months, compared with previous forecasts of 145, 142 and 140, strategists including Kamakshya Trivedi wrote in a note Friday (Mar 23). The pair ended Friday at 151.41.
Goldman’s move comes after the Bank of Japan just days ago scrapped the world’s last remaining negative interest rate, while also indicating that financial conditions would remain accommodative for now – and providing few clues about the future path of monetary policy. After the decision, the yen fell near its lowest levels since 1990 versus the greenback. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is still eyeing three interest rate cuts this year.
“The benign macro risk environment should weigh on the yen over time,” the strategists wrote. “We also do not expect careful Fed cuts driven by cooler inflation to boost the yen. If anything, the anticipation of adjustment cuts has reduced the probability of the recession risks that tend to activate the yen’s safe-haven appeal.”
Goldman also revised forecasts for the euro/Swiss franc pair, to 0.97, 0.98 and 0.99 in three, six and 12 months, from flat at 0.95 previously. That change comes after the Swiss National Bank surprised markets with an interest rate cut that showed policymakers are acting more forcefully to prevent any appreciation in the currency. BLOOMBERG
