Sit next to Trudeau or Poilievre on a flight? Canadians say no thanks

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OTTAWA — We’ve all been there before. You get settled into your airplane seat just before a long flight, with the glimmer of hope that maybe the seat next to you will stay empty.

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Most of the time, those hopes are dashed, as a late boarding passenger heads straight towards you. Worst-case scenario? They look like a talker.

This particular kind of agony might be useful in figuring out how Canadians feel about their political leaders.

Imagine the passenger heading towards the seat next to you is Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. How do you feel about that? How about Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre? Or NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh?

What if Green Party Leader Elizabeth May bought some carbon offsets and then, guilt-free, booked the seat next to you?

Turns out Canadians have feelings about this. Interestingly, Trudeau and Poilievre evoke a similar kind of dread from our hypothetical airline passenger, who just wants to catch up on sleep or read a book.

When the National Post and Leger asked Canadians which of the national party leaders they would least like to sit next to on a long flight, 21 per cent said Poilievre and the same number, 21 per cent, said Trudeau.

People’s Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier finally got a taste of double-digit polling numbers with 10 per cent of Canadians saying he is the leader they least want to sit next to on a plane.

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Nine per cent of Canadians shuddered at Singh and five per cent cringed at May. Thirty per cent of Canadians were too nice to play along and said none of the party leaders were so detestable that they would mind a long plane ride next to them.

(The poll did not ask about Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet, as his party runs candidates only in Quebec.)

Why does it matter? Anyone involved in politics will tell you that likeability matters.

“I’ve worked in some political campaigns and, quite frankly, the campaigns are always easier when you have a leader who is genuinely liked and respected by the voters,” said Andrew Enns, an executive vice-president at Leger.

Canadians think likeability is an important issue, too. In the same Postmedia-Leger poll, 77 per cent of respondents said they want a party leader who they can relate to. Only four per cent of Canadians said this is not at all important to them.

Although some Liberals have found solace in Poilievre’s low approval numbers, it would be a mistake for the prime minister to rely on being the “least unpleasant offering,” said Carlene Variyan, a former Liberal strategist and staffer.

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“I suspect the Liberal team knows better than to believe that unlikeability will be a barrier to electoral success for the Conservative leader. Progressives learned this lesson the hard way, clinging to the idea that Stephen Harper’s stiff, cold abrasiveness would eventually turn Canadians off. Instead, he won three consecutive elections,” said Variyan.

The poll also shows that Poilievre’s Conservatives continue to sit in majority government territory with 42 per cent support compared to 26 per cent for the Liberals.

The poll puts the NDP at 17 per cent popularity, the Bloc Québécois at seven per cent, the Green Party at four per cent and the People’s Party at two per cent.

Charting out the federal poll numbers over the last year shows a remarkable run for Poilievre’s Conservatives since the beginning of last summer, when they were only sitting at 31 per cent according to Leger’s monthly polling.

It’s hard to know precisely why polls change, but affordability and housing worries seemed to combust around that time, said Enns.

“The housing debate blew up in the beginning of that summer. If you recall, towards the end of summer, the federal Liberals held a cabinet retreat in Atlantic Canada and housing was the big issue. And they seemed to be caught out by that,” said Enns.

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“You can clearly see in May it was neck-and-neck (between Conservatives and Liberals) and by the end of the year, there was a 10 point gap,” he said.

It could go a long way to explaining the Conservatives’ dominance, despite the poll showing Canadians don’t find either leader particularly likeable. Voters are seized by issues that Poilievre has made a priority. The poll also shows that Canadians believe Poilievre is more like them than any other leader. Voters also think he’s currently better suited to be prime minister than any of his rivals.

Twenty-two per cent of respondents said Poilievre is the leader most like them, while 14 per cent said Trudeau and 13 per cent said Singh. Thirty per cent of Canadians said none of the party leaders were like them.

Twenty-nine per cent of Canadians said Poilievre is best suited to be prime minister, while Trudeau and Singh both picked up the endorsement of 17 per cent of Canadians.

This is another area where Poilievre has flipped the polls. In May of last year, only 19 per cent of Canadians said the Conservative leader would make the best prime minister, compared to 24 per cent for Trudeau.

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With a federal election campaign more than a year-and-a-half away, the Liberals are already trying to dig themselves out of a deep hole with younger voters. They’ve signalled that the April budget will be heavily geared towards Gen Z and Millennials and Trudeau has been directly appealing to them this week with spending announcements for child care and promises to help renters.

The Postmedia-Leger poll found that 41 per cent of voters between the ages of 18 and 34 are planning to vote for the Conservatives, compared to 18 per cent for the Liberals.

Trudeau, the former minister of youth, has a hard slog ahead of him to win those voters back.

National Post
stthomson@postmedia.com

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