‘That is certainly what we will be looking at as to what type of submarines are most appropriate for Canada’s responsibility and protecting the longest coastline in the world’
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OTTAWA – The Liberals’ new defence policy is promising a fresh look at expanding and renewing Canada’s submarine fleet, with the prime minister not ruling out that nuclear submarines could be part of that upgrade.
The long-awaited defence policy review was released at Canadian Forces Base Trenton on Monday. It includes billions in new proposed spending that the government said would bring the country’s military budget closer to NATO target of two per cent of GDP, but still fall short.
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The policy review was launched just after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and was proposed as a response to the changing global situation. The document said Canada would consider investing in new submarines.
“We commit to vastly improving the Canadian Armed Forces’ ability to surveil and control our underwater and maritime approaches,” the document reads. “We will explore options for renewing and expanding our submarine fleet to enable the Royal Canadian Navy to project a persistent deterrent on all three coasts, with under-ice capable, conventionally powered submarines.”
Canada has four diesel submarines purchased secondhand from Britain in the late 1990’s. The submarines have a dismal performance record and have spent much of their time in dry docks undergoing lengthy repairs. During a recent four-year span, all four submarines spent a combined total of just 214 days in the water, with two of the subs spending no time at sea at all.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the government will start a process to determine what would be the best fit as a replacement. While the defence review suggested the subs would be “conventionally powered,” Trudeau didn’t rule out considering a nuclear-powered fleet.
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“That is certainly what we will be looking at as to what type of submarines are most appropriate for Canada’s responsibility and protecting the longest coastline in the world,” he said. “We have framed out in this policy update, a need to lean in carefully determine what kinds of submarines we’re going to need for the coming years and how best to procure them.”
Darren Hawco, a retired vice-admiral and board member with the Conference of Defence Associations Institute, said submarines with even a near-ice or under-ice capability would be a substantial upgrade for Canada.
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He said whether the subs or nuclear powered or conventional is not the major sticking point, but if they are going to operate under the ice, the submarines need to be able to break through it in case of an emergency.
“That’s the really important technology difference. It has nothing to do with conventional or nuclear, it’s just about the weight of the thing, so that it gets enough momentum when it’s rising and the conning tower is robust enough that it doesn’t get damaged,” he said.
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Nuclear powered submarines can operate for longer than conventional powered ones and have significant power, but Hawco said they also come with a significant cost including onshore facilities and could even require new naval bases.
Hawco said having a submarine that could operate under the parts of the Arctic that are frozen year round would be difficult, but even something that could operate under “new-ice” would be helpful.
He said any enemy submarine going under the deepest parts of the ice eventually has to surface on the other end and with the right equipment including drones and underwater sensors, Canada’s Navy could simply wait for them.
“I actually, personally and professionally am not certain there is a bonafide underwater security threat that would require a submarine able to operate deep and protracted distances throughout the Northwest Passage.”
Hawco said that doesn’t mean a renewed submarine fleet wouldn’t be useful. He said it is one of the few weapons that really change how enemies think.
“The presence of a submarine, just the mere possibility of the presence of a submarine will change the way the other side operates,” he said. “It is that type of a weapons system that changes the way people think and that’s really rare.”
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Robert Huebert, a professor at the University of Calgary, said he believes anything short of a nuclear submarine fleet would be a mistake for Canada.
“If you are going to respond to the capabilities, both that the Chinese are developing and that the Russians have, you need a nuclear powered sub,” he said.
Hubert said a nuclear sub is important for operations in the Arctic, but also operations in Canada’s other oceans.
A Senate report last year argued for more submarines, but said Canada could avoid using nuclear submarines by considering a new technology, air-independent propulsion.
Huebert said submarines with that technology may be able to operate under the ice, but Canada needs a proven technology, especially considering how long it can take for defence procurement in Canada to actually purchase anything.
“Even if we make the decision today, we’re not going to see that submarine in the waters probably for the next decades.”
National Post
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