Multiple polls show the Conservatives in second place, close behind Premier David Eby’s NDP, with United a distant third ahead of the Oct. 19 provincial election
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B.C.’s two centre- right parties are holding private talks on co-operating to defeat the ruling B.C. NDP, their party leaders confirmed Tuesday. What that co-operation would look like remains unclear.
It comes as the fourth poll in a row shows the Conservatives in second place, close behind Premier David Eby’s NDP, with United a distant third.
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United Leader Kevin Falcon said he won’t negotiate in public but acknowledged that “emissaries from both parties are having discussions to see if we can find common ground, recognizing that the real enemy is the NDP government.”
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“Four more years of that government, I think will be, frankly, economically devastating for the province of British Columbia,” Falcon told reporters in Victoria Tuesday. “And that’s why we have to put aside our own egos, our own party issues, everything else, and just figure out whether there’s common ground.”
Conservative leader John Rustad said he hasn’t been approached directly about a potential merger, but said informal conversations have happened in recent days between “various business groups.”
“There is some potential between the two parties to be able to do some things, but it’s limited,” he said. “I’m always going to be open to having a discussion. At the end of the day, we want to be able to represent all people in British Columbia.”
Rustad said given B.C. United’s poor polling results, “it’s not surprising they are a little concerned about the future.”
An online Abacus Data poll, which surveyed 1,000 eligible voters and was released Tuesday, suggests if an election were held today, the B.C. NDP would win with 40 per cent support and the B.C. Conservatives would become the official Opposition with 34 per cent support. B.C. United was a distant third with 13 per cent support followed by the B.C. Greens at 10 per cent. (The poll’s margin of error is expected to be plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.)
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“Obviously, I’m not thrilled by those kinds of numbers,” Falcon said, but added those results differ widely from the positive feedback from people who attend the town hall meetings he’s been holding across the province.
Despite a $1 million advertising campaign that has ads running during the Canucks games, Falcon acknowledged that potential voters are still unfamiliar with the B.C. United brand and that the Conservatives are riding the coat tails of federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
The polling results could shift dramatically during the election campaign, Falcon said, which is when potential voters will be able to assess the parties platforms and individual candidates.
It’s clear Eby takes the polling seriously, as he increasingly attacks Rustad. During last week’s press conference about the latest ICBC rebate, Eby attacked Rustad seven times and mentioned Falcon only three times.
During a press conference about child care in Victoria on Tuesday, Eby mentioned Rustad or the Conservatives a dozen times and didn’t mention Falcon once.
“I’ve been clear from the beginning that the Conservatives are a real threat,” said Eby when asked if he believes Rustad’s two-MLA party is now the NDP’s chief political rival.
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“They’re going to cost British Columbias in very tangible ways. Cancelling school projects, relighting the dumpster fire at ICBC, cancelling ICBC rebates, cancelling rebates through B.C. Hydro. And just last week, putting into question a woman’s right to choose.”
Eby was referring to a statement last week from B.C. Conservative MLA Bruce Banman who, in a statement in the legislature about Mother’s Day, defined motherhood as starting “from the moment of conception” which the B.C. NDP called a “dog whistle,” or coded words, to anti-abortion campaigners.
Rustad was clear Tuesday that the party will not reopen the abortion debate, but he also said B.C. Conservative candidates are “allowed to have their own opinions” on the issue.
This was in response to resurfaced social media posts from Damon Scrase, the B.C. Conservative candidate for Courtney-Comox, who wrote: “The most feverishly defended ‘right’ in this country is the right to kill babies.”
UBC political scientist Gerald Baier said Eby is clearly trying to make the B.C. Conservatives “look as scary as possible.”
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“A fourth poll in a row that has the Conservatives trailing close (behind the B.C. NDP) and certainly leaving B.C. United — which has been the Opposition party or government party for more than 25 years — in the dust is obviously an interesting thing. All of that leads to what some political scientists call realignment.”
Baier said a potential merger between the centre-right parties could be difficult with just five months from the Oct. 19 provincial election.
He questioned what the party would be called and who would be the leader.
“I don’t think either (Falcon or Rustad) are interested in ceding leadership to the other right now,” Baier said.
Both Rustad and Falcon said they’re committed to running candidates in all 93 ridings, which seems to rule out the possibility of not running candidates in certain ridings to avoid splitting the right and putting the B.C. NDP in a strong position in swing ridings.
The B.C. Conservatives have already named 63 candidates and B.C. United has named 53.
Rustad and Falcon are increasingly taking similar positions on some issues, including both parties this week calling for the B.C. NDP government to end the vaccine mandates that have sidelined unvaccinated health care workers. A B.C. Supreme Court upheld the vaccine mandate in a ruling this week, dismissing a constitutional challenge by 15 health-care workers.
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Rustad said if he becomes premier, he’d fire the provincial health officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, in order to overturn the provincial health order.
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