The public is tough to read this time and while the BJP will get majority, one can expect the unexpected: This is what a group of experts at NDTV concluded as the massive celebration of democracy in the country draws to a close. There will be tough fights, some in the BJP bastions of the north and the ruling party will gain from non-BJP states, including Telangana, Odisha and Bengal, the experts said. As for the 370-seat target, it could represent the ideal, said one of the experts at NDTV Battleground, anchored by Editor-in-chief Sanjay Pugalia.
The 2024 election has bucked the trend of the last 10 years, in the sense of an absence of any wave or public anger, the experts agreed. What has hit the country instead is a sense of discontent, which, the Opposition has failed to capitalise on.
“Voting is an emotional decision, there’s discontent. Last time BJP got 40% votes but converting discontent to anger is important. There was one-sided election in Dec 2023 polls. Wave is seen after election. It’s not easy to understand the psyche of the voter,” said political strategist Amitabh Tiwari.
Political expert Neerja Chowdhury said the election has been “complex” and “difficult to decode”.
“At some level, we are not seeing that Modi wave. On a different level, there are some fence-sitters. Modi Wave cannot control the Opposition, who have local issues. The Opposition is giving a fight but that doesn’t equal victory,” she added.
Public mood after six phases
This election had started with some issues but deviated from them soon enough. The BJP had started the polls with a focus on national issues, but ended up responding to the Opposition agenda including change in constitution, said Sanjay Kumar, psephologist from CSDS.
But barring the noise on social media, there is also the silent majority that makes up is mind about which way to go even before the election begins. Asked whether the Opposition has got got sidetracked and misled by the illusion created by social media, Mr Tiwari agreed.
“One has to think what is the issue at the heart of every election,” he said. “People vote for the bright future of themselves and their children… There are two key sections missing from the social media chatter — women and the beneficiaries of welfare projects. These are the two sections who have decided which way many of the elections went,” he added.
