Afghanistan’s shocking win over former champions Australia has blown Group 1 wide open as far as the T20 World Cup semi-finals are concerned. After India beat Bangladesh on Saturday, Australia needed a win over Afghanistan to also join them on four points. Australia’s win would’ve guaranteed both the teams a place in the semi-finals ahead of their match on Monday. However, a spirited performance from Afghanistan, who also came close to beating Australia last year during the ODI World Cup, means that all four teams can still qualify for the next round heading into the final round of matches.
Here are the semi-finals qualification scenarios for Group 1:
India (4 points, 2 games; NRR +2.4)
For Rohit Sharma and co, the equation is simple. Beat Australia. That would make the Afghanistan vs Bangladesh game irrelevant to them.
For them to miss out on semi-finals from this position is highly unlikely, but not impossible.
India can miss out if both Australia and Afghanistan win by big margins.
Australia need to beat India by 41 runs to go above them on Net Run Rate (NRR), while Afghanistan will have to win against Bangladesh by at least 83 runs.
In case of a washout, India will go through as no other team can achieve five points.
Australia (2 points, 2 games; NRR +0.22)
To make it to the semi-finals, Australia need to beat India first. Then the side would hope Bangladesh to beat Afghanistan.
Even if Australia lose their final game by a narrow margin, they will be in the semis race.
In this case, Australia will need Bangladesh to beat Afghanistan by such a margin that the two teams’ NRRs remains lower than that of Australia.
Australia will also be having a chance if their match vs India is abandoned.
Australia will then need Bangladesh to beat Afghanistan or the match between the two to be abandoned.
Afghanistan (2 points, 2 games; NRR -0.65)
If India beat Australia and Bangladesh win against Afghanistan, three teams will be tied on two points each.
In that case, NRR will have the final say. Australia currently have a better net run rate than both Afghanistan and Bangladesh.
If Afghanistan lose by one run, Australia will need to lose by 31 for their net run rate to slip below that of Afghanistan.
If Australia beat India by one run, Afghanistan would need a 36-run margin to move ahead of them.
Similarly, if Australia win off the final ball while chasing, Afghanistan will have to win their game in 15.4 overs or sooner (assuming the first-innings score is 160).
In case of a washout, Afghanistan would need a favour from India in their game against Australia.
Bangladesh (0 points, 2 matches; -2.48)
Bangladesh have the worst net run rate in the group and sit bottom with zero points. However, they still have an outside chance to make it to the semi-finals.
They must win by 31 runs for their NRR to sneak ahead of Afghanistan’s, and also hope that Australia lose by at least 55 runs, to finish second.
A defeat or a washout in either of those games will end their campaign.
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