Liberals face byelection test in Toronto—St. Paul’s riding

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OTTAWA — Even as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has watched his Liberal party’s poll numbers dive deeper and deeper into the abyss over the last year, he has managed to hold his ground in the House of Commons.

That could change on Monday.

Trudeau’s polling numbers began to plummet in the spring of 2023 and now his Liberal party consistently languishes 20 percentage points behind Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.

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But in the six byelections held since last year, the status quo has held. The safe Liberal seats have stayed red and the safe Conservative seats have stayed blue. The Liberals won in Winnipeg South—Centre and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount two seats they had previously held. The Conservatives won the seats they held in Oxford, Durham, Calgary—Heritage and Portage Lisgar.

Voters in Toronto—St. Paul’s will get a chance Monday to put their own thumbs on the scale with a byelection set for Monday to replace longtime Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett.

Candidate Leslie Church, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s former chief of staff, is trying to keep the riding in Liberal hands against a challenge from Conservative Don Stewart. The NDP have put forward Amrit Parhar, the Greens Christian Cullis and the People’s Party are represented by Dennis Wilson.

There are also dozens of candidates on the ballot as independents as part of the longest ballot committee’s efforts to call attention to Trudeau’s broken promise on electoral reform.

There has been speculation that Trudeau will come under pressure to resign if the party loses in Toronto—St. Paul’s but no member of Parliament or minister has said that publicly and the prime minister has repeatedly said he intends to lead the party into the next campaign.

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A senior Liberal said losing the riding would be a seismic shift but predicted the party will likely hold the seat, only with a much lower margin, possibly in the single digits. The person said the party is organized, not facing a well-known challenger and has the resources to get out the vote.

The senior Liberal said the Jewish community, which makes up about 15 per cent of the riding, is deeply disappointed in the Liberal stance on the war in Gaza and that it could be a significant factor. After two previous votes in Parliament that called on the government to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist group, the Liberals took that step this week. Israel has long called for Canada to make that call, as the IRGC is considered a state-sponsor of terror groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.

The Conservatives suggested in Parliament it was a politically motivated decision to influence the impending byelection.

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Speaking in French on Thursday, Trudeau described the byelection as a reflection of the decision Canadians will have in a general election next year. He said it will be a real choice between an ambitious and generous country that takes care of the vulnerable or a country that leaves people behind in tough times.

Church said she decided to make the transition from political staffer to politician because she had seen what is possible in government.

“There’s very few people that have the experience that I have working at the highest levels of government to understand how to actually go from an idea to to putting something in action and delivering for the community,” Church said.

Bennett won the downtown Toronto riding in 2021 with a nearly 25-point lead and in 2019 her margin of victory was even higher. Church said she is certainly hearing about concerns voters have, with the cost of housing and rent high on that list, but she said voters have been receptive to the solutions the Liberals are offering.

She said some voters definitely have concerns, but she said they also worry about what a Conservative government would offer instead.

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“I do hear about people’s views on the government and on the prime minister. I think that’s only natural given how much out in front he is on the issues, but I also hear from a lot of people and their discomfort with the alternative,” she said.

Stewart was not available for an interview Friday.

Church said she isn’t taking anything for granted, but she is optimistic.

“I feel like the plan that we’ve put forward, I feel like the things that I’m talking about connect with people. I think they like the positive, fresh energy that we’ve been bringing to the campaign.”

It will be closer than normal

While Conservatives expect the result in Toronto—St. Paul’s will be closer than when Bennett was the Liberal candidate, they don’t expect a change.

“It will be closer than normal but we’re not winning the riding,” said one Conservative source, who spoke on the condition they not be named.

Another Conservative pointed out that even in 2011, when then Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff led the party to its worst outcome, reducing the party to third in the House of Commons and just 34 seats, Toronto—St. Paul’s remained in the Liberal camp.

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Liberal MPs and cabinet ministers have flocked to the riding to help out.

Crown Indigenous Relations Minister Gary Anandasangaree, said earlier this month that Church is a great candidate and the riding will go the Liberals way.

“I’ve been knocking on doors in many of the communities in St. Paul’s, and I believe that we will have really positive results on June the 24th.”

Health Minister Mark Holland said he has had good conversations at the door, but he wasn’t ready to call it one way or the other.

“Unfortunately I lack the ability to prognosticate and be clairvoyant. I wish that I had that ability. I would probably have been more successful in my political career,” he said.

General election polls will be open on Monday between 8:30 a.m. and 8:30 p.m. and advance polls are open this weekend.

National Post
rtumilty@postmedia.com

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