The Conservatives took one Liberal fortress. Montreal may be be next

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OTTAWA — First, the Conservatives took Toronto—St.Paul’s. Next, they’re gunning for Mount Royal in Montreal.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is said to be sharpening his knives to take on a Liberal fortress in Quebec’s largest city in the next general election. And after the party’s stunning byelection victory in a formerly safe Liberal seat on Monday, the Conservatives seem more confident than ever.

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“(The) next longtime Liberal riding to flip to the Conservative party will be Mount Royal,” said Jeremy Levi, the mayor of Hampstead, a town of 8,000 located within the federal riding.

Levi said he has had enough of the Liberals.

“I am more concerned (with) getting rid of Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party for the sake of our country than my own victory in Hampstead,” said Levi.

Before the Oct. 7th attack on Israel by Hamas, Levi mostly kept his opinions about partisan politics to himself. The Liberals’ perceived lack of support for Israel and Canadian Jews facing rising antisemitic attacks, and its support for a pro-Palestinian motion from the NDP, changed everything.

Since then, Levi has become one of the most outspoken politicians in Quebec on the Middle East.

In May, Levi was criticized for questioning the Liberals’ special visa program for Palestinians from Hamas-controlled Gaza. He said “Canada should reconsider its immigration plan for Gazans” because “their values seem incompatible with ours, and I have no desire to welcome more hatred into our country.”

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He now says “the existential threat our country faces from Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are deeply concerning” and believes it is “crucial” for the Conservatives to get their candidate, lawyer Neil Oberman, elected in Mount Royal.

But the fight won’t be easy for the Tories.

Mount Royal has been represented by the Liberals since 1940, including by former prime minister Pierre Trudeau from 1965 to 1984, and polls show current Liberal MP Anthony Housefather remains a popular figure.

“Anthony could win as a Liberal, a Conservative or an Independent. It really wouldn’t matter. People are going to vote for Anthony. In terms of our riding, it’s definitely a candidate thing,” said Mitchell Brownstein, the mayor of Cote Saint-Luc, the biggest town in the riding.

The poll aggregator 338Canada placed the Liberals 10 points ahead in Mount Royal.

Anthony Housefather and Conservative party officials declined to be interviewed for this story.

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But longtime Conservative Quebec organizer Senator Leo Housakos said the party won’t stop fighting until it wins the riding and finally ends its long-running electoral shutout from the city.

“For the first time in a long time, under Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative party will dedicate time and effort in the Montreal region. Unlike what the Conservative strategy in the past has been between 2004 and 2022,” said Housakos.

Liberal insiders in Quebec have downplayed the effect of this week’s Toronto byelection upset, but the idea Conservatives could flip Mount Royal in their favour is no longer as far-fetched as it once was.

Even before his party earned a shocking victory in a Toronto—St. Paul’s byelection on Monday, Poilievre was targeting Mount Royal in Montreal.

“The Toronto—St-Paul’s victory sends the very strong message that anything is possible for the Conservatives right now. Certainly, they have reasons to hope for a win in Montreal and in Mount Royal. I think the entire Liberal caucus is nervous at this point,” said former Liberal advisor Jeremy Ghio.

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Since October, Conservatives have argued that the Liberals are turning their back on Israel, a historic friend of Canada’s.

The Jewish community makes up for a quarter of the electorate in Mount Royal. It is about 15 per cent in Toronto—St.Paul’s.

The disappointment with Canada’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war and the antisemitic attacks against Jews here in Canada is palpable in the community, said Lawrence S. Bergman, the former longtime Liberal MNA for the provincial riding of D’Arcy-McGee in Montreal, which overlaps Mount Royal.

“There is a part of the riding where the population is following what is going on in the Middle East  almost sometimes on an hourly basis. The question of antisemitism is very, very concerning for the population,’’ said Mr. Bergman.

Housefather, a Jewish supporter of Israel himself, has criticized his own party’s positions on Israel. But in Montreal and on Parliament Hill, Conservatives have been hammering the MP for his apparent inability to convince the Trudeau government to change its stance.

“Anthony Housefather is keeping in power the most anti-Israel prime minister in Canadian history. Anthony Housefather and the rest of the Liberal MPs are making it possible for Justin Trudeau to hike taxes on work and investment, and to fund terrorist-sympathizing UNRWA (the controversial UN agency for Palestinians). Whereas Neil Oberman is very consistent,” Poilievre recently told the Montreal Gazette.

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Oberman recently served as the lawyer representing McGill University students fighting to have an anti-Israel encampment on campus removed.

The Conservatives this week have been attacking Housefather after allegations surfaced that his government’s new appointee to head its Human Rights Commission had a history of anti-Israel activism.

On Wednesday, Conservative MP Melissa Lantsman sent a letter to the chair of the House justice committee asking to immediately call a meeting to address the situation around the appointment of Birju Dattani, and are blaming Housefather for blocking the meeting.

Dattani had reportedly shared a stage with a member of an Islamic fundamentalist group and allegedly called for boycotting Israel.

“Liberal MP Anthony Housefather has the power to recall justice committee, question the minister and confront the commissioner. Instead, Housefather will prop up Trudeau and let this antisemitic commissioner off the hook,” said MP Lantsman.

In a statement on Wednesday, the Liberal MP said he was “extremely troubled by the information that has surfaced” and that he has been in contact with justice department to request a formal investigation.

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Last week, Poilievre started his Quebec tour with a stop in Mount Royal to announce Oberman as the party’s candidate for the next general election, expected in 2025.

Housakos said Poilievre has visited the riding more often since he became leader in 2022 than former leaders Erin O’Toole, Andrew Scheer and Stephen Harper “combined.”

In 2015, Harper launched the Conservatives’ national campaign in the riding Mount Royal.

“And he came back one more time in 45 days. That’s not enough for me and clearly, it’s not enough for constituents,” Housakos said.

At the time, Conservatives believed they could win it after falling short by 2,260 votes in 2011.

Anthony Housefather managed to win Mount Royal with a 5,986-vote margin in 2015, followed by 13,703 in 2019 and 13,395 in 2021.

Even when the Liberals lost electoral support across the country, Mr. Housefather increased his majority in his own riding.

“There is no such thing as being confident in such an unstable situation,” said Jacques Saada, the president of the Holocaust Museum in Montreal and former Liberal cabinet minister under then prime minister Paul Martin.

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“He can only hope to hold his fortune and continue serving,” Mr. Saada said. “What we saw on Monday night in Toronto is the beginning of something and we can’t really qualify what this something is.”

National Post
atrepanier@postmedia.com

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