THE greenback traded near three-week lows on Wednesday (Jul 10) as a cautious tone from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell kept risk sentiment in check, while the New Zealand dollar fell after the country’s central bank signalled it saw potential for rate cuts.
Powell acknowledged the cooling labour market and improving inflation, and noted that “we now face two-sided risks” in the economy.
But he also said that a rate cut is not appropriate until the Fed gains “greater confidence” that inflation is headed towards the 2 per cent target.
“Powell took a relatively cautious approach,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto. “But there were enough dovish hints within his narrative to help risk appetite improve in markets.”
“The idea that the labour market is no longer generating the inflation pressure that the US economy was struggling with, and that the Fed was trying to counteract, is helping to reduce the likelihood of further rate hikes and also put a September rate cut more firmly on the table,” Schamotta said.
Traders now have around 77 per cent odds for a rate cut by September, up from 73 per cent a day earlier, with a second cut also seen likely by December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
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The US dollar index, which measures the US currency against six others, including the euro and yen, was last down 0.05 per cent at 105.07.
Consumer price inflation data for June due on Thursday is the next major US economic release that could influence Fed policy. It is expected to show that headline prices rose 0.1 per cent on the month, while core prices gained 0.2 per cent. That would put annual gains at 3.1 and 3.4 per cent, respectively.
The euro gained 0.09 per cent to US$1.082 as investors came to terms with a hung parliament in France.
The unexpected outcome of the snap election, in which the left benefited from a surprise surge but no group won an absolute majority, has plunged France into uncertainty, with no obvious path to a stable government.
The dollar strengthened 0.11 per cent to 161.48 Japanese yen, getting closer to a 38-year high of 161.96 reached last week.
Many Japanese private banks who met with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Tuesday called for the central bank to halve its monthly bond purchases by around 2026, two officials with direct knowledge of the deliberations told Reuters.
The findings will be taken into account when the BOJ finalises its taper plan at its policy meeting on Jul 30 to 31.
Sterling strengthened 0.16 per cent to US$1.2804.
Meanwhile, the kiwi dropped after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) opened the door to possible rate cuts should inflation slow as expected.
The RBNZ, which held rates steady as widely expected, expressed confidence that inflation would return to its target band this year, spurring bets for early policy easing.
At the previous meeting in May, policymakers had flagged the potential for an additional rate hike.
The New Zealand currency was last down 0.73 per cent versus the greenback at US$0.6078.
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin gained 0.46 per cent to US$58,180. REUTERS
