World needs 55% more copper mines to meet EV transition goals: study

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The transition to greener, more sustainable transportation is impracticable as copper mine production cannot keep up with the rising global demand for electric vehicles, according to a new study.

“I think there’s a disconnect between, what the intentions are to meet the global warming challenges and the reality of the materials that are going to be required,” said Dr. Lawrence Cathles, an earth and atmospheric sciences professor at Cornell University.

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The recent study published by the International Energy Forum, which was led by Cathles and Dr. Adam Simon, a professor of earth & environmental sciences at the University of Michigan, found that hybrid vehicles could present a more effective alternative than transitioning the global vehicle fleet to EVs. The study underscores that copper production cannot keep pace with the increasing global demand for EVs, which require about 83 kg of the metal per car, according to the International Copper Association. Copper, which is an effective electrical conductor, is needed for EV batteries, copper rotors used in electric motors, wiring and even charging infrastructure.

Cathles said that there has not been sufficient investment in discovering and developing new copper mines to meet governments’ goals for transitioning from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to EVs.

British Columbia has established CleanBC, their provincial government plan to “lower climate-changing emissions by 40 per cent by 2030.” In B.C., transportation is the largest single source of emissions. The province aims to reduce transportation emissions by approximately one-third by 2030. Ontario implemented the EV ChargeON Program, a $91 million initiative aimed at facilitating the installation of public electric vehicle chargers. This program focuses on building charging stations in locations outside Ontario’s major cities, including community hubs, highway rest areas, carpool parking lots and Ontario Parks.

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Meanwhile the federal government has an ambitious goal of 100 per cent zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035 for all new light-duty vehicles. Hybrids do not qualify as zero-emission vehicles. Only 8.9 per cent of light-duty vehicle sales were zero-emission in 2022.

The U.S. Federal Sustainability Act has also announced that all manufactured cars must be electric by 2035. Similarly, the European Union is targeting full electrification of sold vehicles by 2035.

The study shows that in order to meet current business-as-usual trends, 115 per cent more copper will need to be mined in the next 30 years than has been mined historically so far. Electrifying the global vehicle fleet would require 55 per cent more new mines.

“There are a lot of fundamental needs for copper and it’s not a replaceable commodity,” said Cathles. “You can’t just go banning capabilities unless you have a replacement for them,” he said, emphasizing that the political push for electrification will require significant financial investment.

A switch to hybrid vehicles would be more achievable, the study found, as they require “negligible extra copper mining.”

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“A lot of the benefits that you’d like from electrification … can be met with hybrids,” Cathles said.

There are ways to increase the amount of copper that is mined, including through remote mining and seafloor mining. But these techniques still need time to fully progress.

Remote mining involves self-driving or partially autonomous vehicles employed in mining operations are managed remotely via an interconnected system that integrates GPS, vehicle control, and obstacle detection. These vehicles are specifically designed to function autonomously within mining sites, eliminating the requirement for direct human oversight.

Seafloor mining is notably observed in the deep ocean near hydrothermal vents, where hot, chemical-rich fluids from beneath the seafloor form valuable deposits. Some attempts to extract deposits from the seafloor have been successful, but so far, few have managed to overcome the technical difficulties of retrieving substantial amounts of material from deep ocean depths.

According to Cathles, the study seeks to stimulate discussion among the general public, not just experts in the field, and to increase awareness of the issue.

“Making such a fundamental change is going to take time,” he said. “When you put a deadline of 2035 or 2050 or whatever, you’re asking the world to change on a dime, and I just don’t think it’s going to happen.”

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