Gold drifts higher on Fed rate-cut hopes, geopolitical risks

PRICES of safe-haven gold climbed on Monday (Jul 29) on heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and amid expectations of a US rate cut in September, while focus shifted to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting due later this week.

Spot gold was up 0.3 per cent at US$2,391.80 per ounce, as at 0205 GMT. US gold futures firmed 0.4 per cent to US$2,390.50.

“Prices will hold a range ahead of the Fed meet and chair Jerome Powell’s comments. If we get a clearly dovish stance and softer jobs data, prices could head towards US$2,450,” said Kelvin Wong, Oanda’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific.

The US central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on Jul 30 to 31 and is expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25 to 5.5 per cent. However, softer US jobs data in June, cooling inflation and comments from top Fed officials have prompted the rate futures market to fully price in a 25 basis-point cut in September.

The ADP national employment report and non-farm payrolls report are the main data points due this week.

Gold, historically reputed for its stability as a favoured hedge against geopolitical and economic risks, thrives in a low-interest rate environment.

Israel’s security Cabinet authorised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to decide on the “manner and timing” of a response to a rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 teenagers and children, and which Israel and the United States blamed on Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.

Bullion should see further safe-haven demand if things get more heated up in the Middle East, Oanda’s Wong added.

Elsewhere, top consumer China’s output of gold using domestic raw materials rose by 0.58 per cent from the year before to 179.634 metric tons in the first half of 2024, the country’s Gold Association said.

Spot silver gained 0.1 per cent at US$27.93 per ounce, platinum rose 0.8 per cent to US$942.75 and palladium was up 0.7 per cent at US$906.48. REUTERS