Russia takes notice of Canada’s plan to buy 12 non-nuclear submarines

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With an aging and depleted fleet, Canada’s navy is unlikely to strike much fear in the hearts of its adversaries these days.

But a new government plan to purchase 12 modern, non-nuclear submarines that could do service under the Arctic ice has suddenly made Russia sit up and take notice.

As Moscow increasingly probes into Arctic waters, the planned expansion of Canada’s underwater force poses a “radically” altered threat, says Russian defence journalist Alexander Timokhin in an intriguing new article.

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Equipped with the West’s latest torpedo and sonar technology, the proposed new Canadian subs would be difficult for Russian vessels to counter, and could even lie silent on the sea floor near Russia’s naval bases, says Timokhin.

“Today, Canada has three submarines based in the Pacific Ocean, and another in the Atlantic. Due to their obsolescence and wear, the threat they pose to us is not so significant,” he wrote in Vzglyad, an online newspaper with reported ties to the Kremlin. “But new submarines can radically change everything – and not in our favor.”

New submarines can radically change everything

Timokhin suggests that Russia begin working now on measures to respond to the planned new sub fleet, while noting that “we have time to prepare – Canada will not have these submarines instantly. You just need to use this time properly.”

Although Moscow has been flooding the West in recent years with online disinformation and attempts at sowing discord, Timokhin’s essay seems part of his regular output of often-technical defence analyses.

The article appears to have been prompted by Defence Minister Bill Blair’s announcement last month that the government would push ahead with procurement of a dozen new diesel-electric subs. They would replace the four Victoria-class submarines Canada bought second-hand from the U.K. in the 1990s, and that have been plagued by repair troubles.

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The new vessels would use air-independent propulsion systems, enabling them to spend much more time under the ice than the Victoria-class subs, said Kate Todd, a Canadian Global Affairs Institute fellow and naval expert.

They would still have less capability than the nuclear-powered submarines that Russia deploys, noted Timokhin. But they might have an edge in the unlikely event of a confrontation under the waters of the “Canadian Arctic archipelago,” he said.

“In straits with difficult ice conditions, a secretive non-nuclear submarine with a high-class sonar system and modern torpedoes will prove to be a deadly enemy for any nuclear submarine,” the journalist wrote. “Moreover, you can be sure that she will ‘win’ the first shot. This can seriously change the balance of power in some cases.”

This can seriously change the balance of power in some cases

Nuclear subs like those used by Moscow and the U.S. must keep their engines running all the time, emitting a hum that can be detected by other ships. Canadian non-nuclear submarines would be able to shut off their motors and, says Timokhin, “unlike American submarines, Canadian submarines can lie on the bottom near Russian naval bases, primarily in Kamchatka.”

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Todd said she found the analysis, reprinted in English on a Russian military-news website, “quite well-informed.” It shows the Russians view Western forces in much the same suspicious way we do theirs, she said. But Timokhin was off-base with his suggestion that Canada would use its submarines for offensive purposes – or to spy on their naval stations, said Todd.

In fact, Canada wants a fleet of subs, with four each off the West, East and Arctic coasts, for purely defensive purposes, to monitor sea traffic and deter adversaries like Russia that venture into Canadian waters without permission, she said.

“I think that will have quite an impact on our ability to monitor and deter Chinese or Russian craft coming into Canadian waters,” she said. “Submarines are kind of like the apex predator of the seas — they’re able to monitor things but they also have quite a lethal capability. So you wouldn’t want to be doing something illegal or aggressive in our waters if we did have them.”

The other question, of course, is when Canada will actually take delivery of the new submarines. Blair provided no timeline or cost for the project and defence procurement in Canada has a long history of delay and politicization.

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The bottom line is that the new underwater fleet ought to be ready by about 2035, when the former British subs will well and truly need to be replaced, said Todd.

“We’ve had a submarine fleet in Canada for over 100 years now, and submarines are really key to controlling access, deterring potential adversaries, protecting Canadian interests at home and abroad,” she said. “If we were to lose that capability, that would be a major strategic loss.”

Timokhin said Germany’s ThyssenKrupp, Spain’s Navantia, the South Korean Hanwa Group and SAAB of Sweden seem interested in bidding on Canada’s contract.

“For Russia, the worst option would be a German submarine. However, the rest of the submarines are extremely dangerous.”

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