The rise and stall of David Eby

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OTTAWA — David Eby seemed to have everything going for him when he stepped up in mid-2022 to replace departing British Columbia premier John Horgan.

At 45 years old, Eby was seemingly grown in a lab to lead the B.C. NDP, boasting impressive professional credentials, a telegenic young family and plenty of high-level political experience, including five years at Horgan’s side as attorney general.

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He even checked the all-important political box of “tallness,” standing at a towering six-foot-seven.

So few were surprised when the race to replace Horgan turned into Eby’s de facto coronation. If anything, the results were the culmination of a near-inevitable rise kicked off almost a decade earlier, when Eby took out sitting premier Christy Clark to win the coveted riding of Vancouver-Point Grey.

More surprising to many has been Eby’s inability to get off the starting blocks since becoming premier in late 2022.

Shachi Kurl, the Vancouver-based president of the Angus Reid Institute, says that bad timing is partly to blame for Eby’s failure to launch, noting that his early days as premier coincided with a spike in interest rates. Kurl says the post-COVID rate hikes sparked anti-incumbent sentiment at all levels of government.

“People don’t look favourably on those in power when they can’t pay their mortgages and car loans,” Kurl told the National Post by phone.

Kurl declined to say whether she thought Horgan would be in better shape at this point in the pre-campaign period but did allow that Eby lacked the “je ne sais quoi” of his predecessor.

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Eby never got a honeymoon after replacing an ailing Horgan in late 2022, starting out several points behind his popular predecessor in the approval ratings. His personal favourability numbers have only slid from there, now hovering in the low 40s with an election call imminent.

Slow start aside, Eby still looked poised until recently for an easy election win, with the centre-right vote fractured between the B.C. Conservatives and B.C. United (formerly known as the B.C. Liberals).

The picture changed dramatically in late August, when B.C. United Leader Kevin Falcon announced the party would be suspending its campaign and sharing its resources with the Conservatives. Falcon’s capitulation effectively made the election a head-to-head race between Eby’s NDP and the upstart B.C. Conservatives.

Poll aggregator 338Canada currently has Eby’s NDP tied with the B.C. Conservatives in its popular vote projection and slightly ahead in projected seat share.

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Ex-NDP organizer Ryan Painter pointed out Eby and Horgan’s contrasting styles.

“(Horgan) had a genuine personable quality to him,” Painter told the National Post in an email.

“Whether it’s taking in a lacrosse game in a (Victoria) Shamrocks jersey or showing up in a plaid shirt and jeans for an outdoor event, Horgan was an everyman. You had no trouble seeing yourself having a beer with Horgan.”

“I’d be surprised if people see themselves having a Dixie cup of water with Eby,” quipped Painter.

Painter campaigned for the NDP in the last provincial election but says he plans to vote for the B.C. Conservative Party this time around.

David Black, a communications professor at Royal Roads University in Victoria, B.C. said that Eby has a “show your work” style of leadership that worked well for him during his time as attorney general but suits him less well in his new role.

“Eby has a reputation for rolling up his sleeves and getting results on big files,” Black told the National Post, pointing to Eby’s overhaul of the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia while attorney general.

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“Coming into the premier’s chair halfway into the NDP’s term didn’t give Eby much runway to tackle big, complex issues like affordable housing and the addictions crisis,” said Black.

Black says that Eby erred by setting expectations too high, kicking off his premiership with a “first 100 days” speech promising concrete results on housing, health care, the environment and public safety.

Eby’s lack of progress on public safety related files is said to be driving a wedge between the premier’s office and the NDP’s ‘old guard’ of MLAs and staffers, many of whose tenures date back to the party’s last stretch of power in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Tensions boiled over in April when a video depicting open drug use at Maple Ridge Tim Horton’s surfaced online, prompting Minister of Public Safety Mike Farnworth to publicly voice his disgust.

A source close to Farnworth said that his off-script moment over the Tim Horton’s video created a lasting fissure between he and Eby.

The same source said the NDP caucus had a “blow up” over a video released last month of B.C. Conservative candidate Gwen O’Mahony (formerly an NDP MLA) obtaining drug paraphernalia at a vending machine near a Nanaimo hospital.

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The video led Eby to hastily order a review of the so-called harm reduction vending machines.

Several long-tenured NDP MLAs won’t be running in next month’s election. This list includes Harry Bains, Rob Fleming and Bruce Ralston, all elected in 2005. Selina Robinson, first elected to the B.C. Legislature in 2013, has also said she won’t be running.

Robinson was booted from Eby’s cabinet in March over controversial remarks relating to the Israel-Palestine conflict, quitting the NDP caucus soon thereafter.

Multiple sources told the National Post that Eby has concentrated power in the premier’s office, breaking assurances he gave senior ministers while soliciting leadership endorsements.

Kurl says that, despite his stumbles, Eby is still well positioned against rival John Rustad, an Interior B.C. populist with some anti-mainstream positions that make him a tough sell with moderate swing voters.

Eby responded with his own brand of populism by announcing last week that a re-elected B.C. NDP government would scrap the province’s consumer carbon tax if the federal government let it, marking yet another policy reversal for the beleaguered premier.

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“If the ballot question is ‘how do you feel about the NDP government?’ it don’t look too good for Eby,” said Kurl. “If it’s ‘who do you prefer between Eby and Rustad?’ things look a lot better.”

“It’s all relative.”

National Post
rmohamed@postmedia.com

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