Thailand’s rice exports could exceed target and reach 8.5 million metric tons this year, before falling to 6.5 million tons in 2025 as the strength of the baht weighs on demand, its rice exporters association said on Friday (Sep 20).
The association had targeted 8.2 million tons of rice exports this year and about 5.7 million tons were shipped in the first seven months, according to commerce ministry data.
Thailand is the world’s second-largest exporter of the grain.
The association is concerned that currency appreciation will impact exports next year and there will be increased competition, its honorary president Chukiat Opaswong told Reuters.
“There is no problem this year, but next year, if the baht continues to rise, it will be harder to sell rice,” he said.
The baht should be at around 35 per dollar to make Thai rice exports competitive, he added.
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The baht hit 33.0 baht per dollar on Friday, the highest level in more than 19 months. It has gained by 3.2 per cent against the greenback so far this year, to be Asia’s second best performing currency after the ringgit.
Thailand will also face more competition if top exporter India lifts its curb on white rice exports, Chukiat said.
Global rice production is also expected to increase next year, he added.
The price of Vietnam’s rice was higher than Thai rice prices, allowing Thailand to sell more grains, but next year it would be difficult to compete, Chukiat said.
“I don’t dare set a target for next year. It may be only 6.5 million tons,” he said. REUTERS
