Why Canada-India relations have soured and why they matter

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The expulsion this week of six Indian diplomats from Canada, and a similar move by India, marks a low point in relations between the two countries. Here’s how we got here.

What’s the history of our relationship with India?

Canada-Indian relations have their roots in the 19th century, when both countries were part of the British Empire. Even though India gained independence from Britain in 1947, both remain part of the Commonwealth of Nations and the G20 group of nations.

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Indians are the tenth largest self-reported group in Canada by nationality, with 1.37 million people or about 3.7 per cent of the population in the 2021 census.

What’s more, between 2013 and 2023, Indians immigrating to Canada rose from 32,828 to 139,715, a 326 per cent increase, according to a National Foundation for American Policy study. Indian enrolment in Canadian universities also rose more than 50-fold between 2000 and 2021, from just 2,181 students to 128,928.

While relations have been mostly friendly — 2011 was declared The Year of India in Canada by both governments — in recent years there have been tensions between the two countries over Sikh separatist movements within India. Canada has the largest Sikh population outside of India.

What was the latest flashpoint?

On June 18, 2023, Hardeep Singh Nijjar was shot and killed outside the Guru Nanak Sikh temple in Surrey, B.C. Nijjar was a local Sikh leader (he was president of the temple where he was killed) and was also involved in the Khalistan movement, which aims to create a separate country for Sikhs, carving land out of India’s Punjab region. He had been organizing an unofficial referendum among the Sikh diaspora in Surrey.

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Things moved quickly in September. On Sept. 1, Ottawa suddenly paused ongoing trade talks with India. During a G20 gathering on Sept. 9 and 10, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faced a frosty reception from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And on Sept. 15, a planned trade mission to India, set for October, was cancelled.

Then on Sept. 18, Trudeau said there was credible evidence that agents of the Indian government were behind the murder. “Any involvement of a foreign government in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil is an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty,” he said in a statement to the House of Commons.

What was India’s reaction?

India has denied involvement in Nijjar’s murder. In September 2023, in reaction to a diplomat being sent home by Canada, the Modi government expelled a Canadian diplomat and froze consular services for Canadians for almost two months.

It also revoked diplomatic immunity on a number of Canadian diplomats, causing Canada to recall 41 personnel from the country.

Where does the murder investigation stand?

In May, police announced the arrest of four Indian nationals in Canada. The province’s Integrated Homicide Investigation Team said in a release on May 11 that 22-year-old Amandeep Singh was already in the custody of Peel Regional Police in Ontario for unrelated firearms charges

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Earlier that month, police arrested Karan Brar, Kamalpreet Singh and Karanpreet Singh in Edmonton and charged them with first-degree murder and conspiracy to commit murder in the death of Nijjar.

Surrey provincial court Judge Jodie Harris, in a court appearance Oct. 1, adjourned the case to Nov. 21. It was the fifth adjournment since May 15.

How is the U.S. involved?

Last November, an indictment was unsealed in New York “alleging murder-for-hire charges against Indian national Nikhil Gupta, a.k.a. Nick, 52, in connection with his participation in a foiled plot to assassinate a U.S. citizen in New York City.” The citizen was referred to as “the Victim.”

The indictment mentions Nijjar’s murder, noting: “The day after the Nijjar murder, Gupta told (an undercover officer) that Nijjar ‘was also the target’ and ‘we have so many targets.’ Gupta added that, in light of Nijjar’s murder, there was ‘now no need to wait’ on killing the Victim. On or about June 20, (an Indian government employee) sent Gupta a news article about the Victim and messaged Gupta, ‘it’s (a) priority now.’”

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Is this the first time this sort of thing has happened?

No. Saudi Arabia has also attempted to kill dissidents in Canada. Omar Abdulaziz and Saad Aljabri were both reportedly targeted by a “Tiger Squad” — part of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s personal mercenary group — who tried to enter Canada on tourist visas in October 2018. However, they were denied entry.

Why do Canadian-Indian relations matter so much?

Historically, Canada has had close ties with India, both emotionally and financially. According to Invest India, Canada ranks as the 18th-largest foreign investor in India, with cumulative investments totalling $3.31 billion from 2020-21 to 2022-23. Canadian investments account for 0.5 per cent of India’s total foreign direct investment, with companies such as Sun Life, McCain Foods and Magna International toping the list.

According to Statistics Canada, India is Canada’s 10th largest trading partner. It also had a larger GDP, some US$3.5 trillion (fifth in the world) against Canada’s roughly US$2.1-trillion (10th place).

India is also a fellow democratic nation, and the largest in the world, although the ranking group Freedom House gives it a score of 67, which it defines as “partly free,” as compared to Canada’s score of 97, which places this country in fifth place behind Finland, New Zealand, Sweden and Norway.

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