Threats against politicians could ‘intensify’ ahead of election: CSIS

Article content

OTTAWA — Canadian public officials will face an increase in “violent rhetoric” during the next federal election and threats could “intensify” leading up to it, warns an intelligence brief that was prepared just days after the assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump.

In July, the federal organization tasked with assessing terrorism threats did an analysis of the potential for violence against Canadian leaders in the wake of the attempt on Trump’s life while he was on stage at a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13.

Article content

In a report prepared two days later, intelligence officials concluded that while the assassination attempt had not led to a heightened risk of danger, it noted how “extremists in this country could use the event to justify violence against parliamentarians.”

The National Post obtained the intelligence brief under federal access-to-information laws.

“Although this incident will embolden violent rhetoric towards Canadian public officials, an inspired attack against an officer holder is unlikely at this time,” reads the heavily redacted brief, which was prepared by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service’s integrated terrorism assessment centre.

“Individuals contributing to hatred and harassment against Canadian public officials will likely cite the attempted assassination in conspiracy theories and rhetoric.”

It continued: “Threats to public officials in Canada could intensify over the next 12-16 months in the lead up to provincial and federal elections.”

The next federal vote is set for October 2025, but could happen sooner in a minority Parliament.

Article content

A spokesman for the intelligence service said in a statement that decisions regarding the protection of federal elected officials fall to the RCMP, which it works with closely.

John Townsend says threat assessments are based “on classified and open-source information” and aim to provide senior government officials with the most recent information on threats to protect against “violent extremism,” with efforts underway to develop “unclassified assessments” to increase general awareness. 

“Incidents such as the assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump in July 2024 could incite individuals to contribute to hatred and harassment towards Canadian public officials,” he said. 

While most of the threats do not meet the threshold for the service to take action under the CSIS Act, Townsend said “the threat environment facing elected officials is growing increasingly complex,” and the service “will not hesitate” to advise the government on how to reduce risks. 

Article content

Article content

The July intelligence brief concluded an act of violent extremism to be a “realistic probability.” It outlined how attacks against elected officials have become more common in both the U.S. and Europe.

“Violent rhetoric towards Canadian public officials will increase during the next election campaign.”

The document details how 51 people were assaulted during France’s election this past summer, from elected officials to candidates and others involved in the campaign. It also noted how another 22 assaults had been recorded so far this year against politicians in Germany, including one person who required surgery.

During the United Kingdom’s most recent vote, candidates were also forced to limit the number of town halls they did with constituents and voters due to “death threats and other violent rhetoric.”

“An increasingly polarized political landscape in Western democracies has increased the threat of violence targeting public officials, especially during electoral campaigns,” the brief said.

Officials pointed to the assassination attempt against Trump as one of two examples of the “vulnerabilities to low-sophistication threat actors even for officials with security measures.” The other was Slovakia Prime Minister Robert Fico who was shot while greeting supporters in May.

Article content

In Trump’s case, U.S. lawmakers have called the shooting of the Republican candidate a failure on the part of the Secret Service, because the gunman was able to access the top of a building near where his rally was being held.

The gunman, Thomas Matthew Crooks, was shot on site after firing at Trump. A bullet pierced the former president’s ear, while one person at the rally was killed and two others were injured. 

The July intelligence brief also notes that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is among those “well-protected” by security measures, which would “mitigate most threats.”

“This incident will resonate with individuals and groups who do not believe that the democratic process will produce the changes they desire,” officials wrote.

“Prominent attacks against public officials in the U.S. and Europe suggest that such violence is becoming increasingly normalized and accepted within mainstream political and social spheres.”

Over the past year, RCMP Commissioner Mike Duheme has repeatedly raised concern about the rise in threats against elected officials, saying he believes a change is needed to the Criminal Code to allow police to more easily lay charges against individuals with uttering threats, especially online.

Article content

In a recent wide-ranging interview with the National Post, Duheme said much like police agencies have faced challenges when it comes to laying hate speech charges against protesters who have been accused of making hateful and other antisemitic statements, they face similar challenges when it comes to tackling threats against politicians.

“A lot of the things that we’re seeing in the social media space does not always necessarily meet the threshold for a criminal offence when it comes to hate speech or a type of crime,” he said.

“What we’re seeing right now is the same thing from these demonstrations. We just don’t meet the key elements of an offence that would warrant laying …criminal charges.”

Duheme echoed his desire to see changes to ensure elected and other high-profile public officials are better protected, which is a task that falls to a special unit within the RCMP.

“When it comes to protecting elected officials and government officials … there’s more work that can be done,” Duheme said.

“It’s something to demonstrate in front of an elected official’s office or Parliament, but I find that you cross the boundaries when you’re in front of the schools where (your) kids go to or even your residence. I think that that meets the criminal threshold — but we’re just not there yet.”

Article content

Asked specifically about the idea of designating certain areas as bubble-zones, Duheme said: “I think you should put everything on the table.”

Justice Minister Arif Virani spoke out earlier this year when demonstrators showed up at his home in Toronto to protest the Liberal government’s response to the Israel-Hamas war. Toronto police said they were aware of the incident, but no arrests were made.

Demonstrators also appeared in front of Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly’s home in Montreal to protest the same issue.

A group of pro-Palestinian activists was also charged with harassing Immigration Minister Marc Miller, who is a Montreal MP.

Virani has previously said he believes that the RCMP has the tools it needs in both resources and the Criminal Code to ensure elected officials are protected against threats.

“Minister Virani was quite clear that we have all the tools in the Criminal Code. I would just say that maybe we should revisit it,” Duheme said.

“The tools that we have right now, I don’t think are the appropriate tools, some of them, to answer what we’re seeing today.”

Article content

He said work is underway to start preparing for the next federal election and that the RCMP is working closely with the sergeant-at-arms and well as local police. Duheme noted how the Mounties saw a rise in threats during the 2021 vote compared to the 2019 federal election. 

National Post
staylor@postmedia.com

Get more deep-dive National Post political coverage and analysis in your inbox with the Political Hack newsletter, where Ottawa bureau chief Stuart Thomson and political analyst Tasha Kheiriddin get at what’s really going on behind the scenes on Parliament Hill every Wednesday and Friday, exclusively for subscribers. Sign up here.

Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our politics newsletter, First Reading, here.

Article content