Similar numbers by Angus Reid say Trudeau would do better opposite Harris, while 18 per cent say neither leader would do a good job, no matter who wins in the U.S.
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Canadians don’t have much of a say in Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, but they will soon be able to choose a new leader for our country, since the next federal election must take place no later than October 2025. And how favourably Canadians view the next prime minister has a lot to do with who wins the election south of the border.
A new poll from Angus Reid found that more than a third of Canadians — 38 per cent — think Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre would be a better prime ministerial match for a second Donald Trump presidency, while a similar number — 37 per cent — think current leader Justin Trudeau would be better at dealing with President Kamala Harris.
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Also, 26 per cent of Canadians think Poilievre would do a better job with both potential presidents, while only 20 per cent say that about Trudeau. And almost a fifth of Canadians — 18 per cent — feel that neither of these federal leaders would do a good job, regardless of who wins on Tuesday.
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Oct. 24 to 26 among a representative randomized sample of 1,627 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. This would involve a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The question asked was: “Which Canadian political leader would be best when it comes to dealing with Canada’s overall relationship with the United States if the following were president?” Thirty-seven per cent chose Trudeau for a Harris victory, compared to 30 per cent who chose Poilievre, 18 per cent who said neither, and 15 per cent who didn’t know.
But substitute Trump for Harris, and the numbers flip, with 38 per cent choosing Poilievre, just 23 per cent picking Trudeau, and a full 25 per cent opting for neither. A similar number (14 per cent) said they didn’t know.
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Perhaps not surprisingly, many of these answers were split along party and regional lines. Among Liberal voters, 83 per cent said Trudeau would be the best match for Harris, and 64 per cent of NDP voters agreed. But among Conservative voters, more than two thirds (68 per cent) said Poilievre would be the best prime minister if Harris wins. Among Bloc Quebecois voters, 35 per cent picked Trudeau but even more (46 per cent) said neither leader was up to the task.
For a Trump presidency, respondents again tended to gravitate to their own party leaders, with 76 per cent of Conservative voters saying Poilievre was the person for the job, while 60 per cent of Liberal voters and 38 per cent of NDP voters picked Trudeau. Once again, Bloc voters were most likely to pick neither (53 per cent), with 18 per cent saying Trudeau was best, and a similar number (16 per cent) choosing Poilievre.
Regionally, the prairie provinces tended to skew more toward Poilievre in all their answers, with Saskatchewan being the most Conservative-leaning group. In that province, 58 per cent said Poilievre would be the best prime minister if Trump is elected, while only 23 per cent said the same thing about Trudeau if Harris were to win.
Trudeau is of course the only current Canadian federal leader with first-hand experience in dealing with American presidents, but his relationship with Trump during his 2016 term was uneven.
During an event at Buckingham Palace in 2019, Trudeau was caught on camera seeming to joke about Trump with other world leaders. This led to Trump calling him “two-faced” before adding: “I find him to be a very nice guy.”
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Trump also spoke out against Trudeau in 2022 during the trucker protest against vaccine mandates. “The Freedom Convoy is peacefully protesting the harsh policies of far left lunatic Justin Trudeau who has destroyed Canada with insane Covid mandates,” Trump said in a statement.
Shachi Kurl, president of Angus Reid, told the National Post that she found it striking the number of respondents who essentially chose “none of them above” in determining who would be the best leader opposite each potential president.
“You’ve got a significant number of people in this country who actually think neither leader will be better in managing that White House relationship,” she said, calling it “a continuation of the extent that Canadians are unenthused by the leadership choices they have in front of them.”
She also noted that, while the Liberals have tried to “cast Pierre Poilievre as a northern Trump, it hasn’t worked.” And she added that while many Canadian Conservatives would favour Trump in the election, they are by no means a monolith in their views.
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