OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and lowered its projection for next year on Tuesday (Nov 12), highlighting China, India and other regions, marking the producer group’s fourth consecutive downward revision.
The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing Opec+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, which earlier this month postponed a plan to start raising output in December against a backdrop of falling prices.
In a monthly report on Tuesday, Opec said world oil demand will rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month.
Until August, Opec had kept the outlook unchanged since it was first made in July 2023.
China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. Opec trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year on year for a seventh consecutive month.
“Diesel has been under pressure from a slowdown in construction amid weak manufacturing activity, combined with the ongoing deployment of LNG-fuelled trucks,” Opec said with reference to China.
Oil pared gains after the report was issued, with Brent crude trading below US$73 a barrel.
There is a wide split between forecasters on the strength of demand growth in 2024, partly due to differences over demand from China and the pace of the world’s switch to cleaner fuels.
Opec, which is still at the top end of industry estimates after the revision, also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd. REUTERS
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