Canadians don’t believe Canada will reach NATO spending target: poll

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Forty-five per cent of Canadians don’t believe the Canadian government will meet its target of spending two per cent of GDP on defence eight years from now, according to a new poll.

The Postmedia-Leger poll looked at Canadians’ confidence in defence spending and the Canadian Armed Forces. NATO allies have been pressuring Canada to meet its commitment to spend at least the equivalent of two per cent of national gross domestic product on defence and Donald Trump, who has warned NATO countries that U.S. military power would not protect them if they’re shirking their own military spending, will assume the presidency in January.

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To meet the target, the Canadian government would need to nearly double its annual spending on defence.

The polling found that just 20 per cent of Canadians believe the government will meet its target.

“Historically, the government has a hard time hitting some of those military spending targets,” said Andrew Enns, Leger’s executive vice-president in central Canada.

He also said it may be due to the fact that the government has not spent a lot of time talking about military spending, until recently.

“There’s a sense in the public that this seems a little bit late in the day, and whether or not there’s a real, full commitment behind it … they remain to be convinced,” Enns said.

Just 13 per cent of prospective Conservative voters believe Canada will meet its spending target; Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, has declined to commit to reaching a two-per-cent target, arguing that Canada may not be able to afford it after years of Liberal government deficits. Among those who would vote Liberal, just 40 per cent believe Canada will hit its target and only 22 per cent of NDP voters believe it’s achievable.

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Canadians are similarly skeptical of Canada’s ability to project its military power. Forty-seven per cent said they did not have confidence that Canada could support its allies militarily, as it did during the war in Afghanistan. Only six per cent of poll respondents said they were “very confident” that Canada could do so. Quebecers, at 57 per cent, are least likely to believe in Canada’s military prowess.

Fifty-four per cent of those over the age of 55 said they were not confident, compared to 38 per cent of those between the ages of 18 and 34.

Enns said this is likely due to the older generation recalling times when the military was more involved in world affairs.

“They look at the current state of the military, (and) they remember the recent conflicts like Yugoslavia or Afghanistan, where our military was quite prominent (and) took on leadership roles,” he said, adding that they are no longer seeing that prominence in current conflicts.

Canada’s combat role in Afghanistan ended in 2011 and the country officially left in 2014, seven years before the United States withdrew.

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There are also major political differences regarding confidence in Canada’s military.

Sixty per cent of Conservative voters said they’re not confident in Canada’s military, compared to just 33 per cent of Liberal voters and 38 per cent of New Democrats. Bloc Québécois voters, at 70 per cent, are the least confident.

Defence Minister Bill Blair has said that the military is short 16,500 members. Twenty-four per cent of poll respondents, asked for the reasons behind these recruitment challenges, cited “mental health concerns,” and 19 per cent pointed to pay and compensation.

Seventeen per cent said that sexual abuse in the military causes recruitment challenges, as does “lack of national pride” in the military.

“The Canadian Armed Forces has a bit of a brand problem,” said Enns.

In comparison, just 11 per cent of respondents said attempts to diversify the military can be blamed for recruitment troubles, and only four per cent said the senior leadership is of poor quality.

Veterans are more likely to experience mental health issues like anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), compared to the rest of the population. One in seven veterans are living with PTSD. Veterans are also more likely to experience homelessness.

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In 2022, around three-and-a-half per cent of regular force members reported being sexually assaulted in the military workplace. Nineteen per cent reported being sexualized. Sixty-one per cent agreed there is a sexual misconduct problem within the Canadian Armed Forces.

A recent Postmedia-Leger poll found that 62 per cent of Canadians feel the government does not take enough pride in the country’s military, and 60 per cent feel Canadians do not have enough pride.

In the NATO spending poll, only 23 per cent of respondents said they would recommend a family member or close friend to serve in the military.

Respondents were also asked if they would rather the Canadian forces buy new equipment from anywhere in the world, or exclusively from Canada.

Forty-five per cent said the primary goal should be purchasing equipment made in Canada, by Canadians.

Enns said this is likely not because Canadians think it will be better for the military.

“The equipment itself is almost the second story,” he said. “The main story is the jobs it’ll create (for Canadians).”

Thirty-five per cent said it does not matter where in the world the equipment is manufactured.

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The polling also asked Canadians how confident they are in Canadian institutions.

Sixty-six per cent of Canadians said they had confidence in the RCMP. The Canadian Armed Forces, local police services and Canadian Border Services Agency all received support from 64 per cent of Canadians. The Supreme Court of Canada had the support of 61 per cent of Canadians and the Canadian Security Intelligence Service had the confidence of 53 per cent of Canadians.

The only two institutions that received support from less than 50 per cent of poll respondents were businesses and corporations, with 47 per cent, and the federal government, with only 40 per cent of respondents saying they have confidence in it.

Quebecers, the polling shows, have the most confidence in almost every institution compared to other provinces. Even in the case of the federal government, 46 per cent of Quebecers had confidence, the highest in the country.

Alberta generally had the least confidence, probably because of the “animosity” felt in that province towards the federal government, Enns said.

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“That provincial government, more often than not, seems to be butting heads with the federal government,” he said.

Only 31 per cent of Albertans said they have confidence in the federal government. The second lowest was Atlantic Canada at 37 per cent; 39 per cent of Ontarians expressed confidence, as did 40 per cent of those in Manitoba and Saskatchewan and 44 per cent of British Columbians.

There was a noticeably lower sense of confidence among Conservative voters in all institutions compared to Liberal voters.

The online survey was conducted between Nov. 1 and 3, 2024. There were 1,549 respondents, 18 years-old and older, randomly selected by Leger’s online panel. Results were weighted according to age, gender, mother tongue, region, education and presence of children in the household. For comparison purposes, a probability survey of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.49 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

National Post, with additional reporting from The Canadian Press

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