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One of the first politic polls of Canadians since the latest U.S. presidential election has found no evidence of a so-called “Trump Bump” for Canada’s governing Liberal party. What’s more, for the first time since the Liberals were elected in 2015, they are tied in second place with the New Democratic Party, far behind the opposition Conservatives.
Over the period from Nov. 14 to Nov. 19, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events, one of the pollster’s regular national omnibus surveys.
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To the question, “If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for?” 43 per cent of respondents chose Conservative, a two per cent increase over the previous survey, done just before polls closed in the U.S. election.
Second place was tied between the Liberals and New Democrats with 21 per cent each, representing a one per cent increase for the New Democrats and a one per cent decline for the Liberals. The Bloc Quebecois was unchanged at eight per cent, with the remaining vote split between the Greens, the People’s party and others.
Thus not only did the Liberals not see a rise in fortunes after the election of Donald Trump south of the border; they actually saw a small drop in popularity, with the Conservatives picking up the slack.
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Data from the last decade shows the Conservatives slowly gaining ground in the poll, with the Liberal and NDP numbers converging over the same timeframe. Their 21 per cent tie also marks the first time they have been in a dead heat for second place in this poll; the Liberals have always outpaced the NDP until now.
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Regionally, Conservatives continue to lead everywhere except Quebec. They hold an absolute majority of voters in Alberta (60 per cent of respondents) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (55 per cent), and a commanding lead in Ontario (47 per cent), British Columbia (42 per cent) and Atlantic Canada (40 per cent). In Quebec, the Bloc is ahead with 36 per cent, trailed by the Conservatives (23 per cent) and the Liberals (20 per cent).
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