THE US dollar is heading for the biggest weekly loss in a year, pulling back from the sharp run up fueled by speculation that Donald Trump’s policies will push the currency higher.
Bloomberg’s gauge of the currency slipped 0.4 per cent Friday (Nov 29), extending the week’s decline to 1.3 per cent. The yen was the biggest beneficiary, advancing 3.5 per cent against the greenback this week, as bets grow on the Bank of Japan raising interest-rates next month.
“The dollar was overdue for a consolidation after the Trump election euphoria sent it higher and into over-extended territory,” said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies.
“The euro, yen and pound had all traded well below where real rate differentials implied for fair value against the dollar, and that has finally started to correct.”
Some of the pullback for the dollar came after Trump announced the nomination of hedge-fund veteran Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, a choice that was seen as promising a more traditional approach toward economic policy.
Much of the dollar’s jump has reflected expectations that Trump would upend the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting path by enacting steep tariffs that would reignite inflation.
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The euro rose 1.6 per cent this week, bouncing back after hitting the lowest in two years last Friday.
The yen gained as much as 1.4 per cent Friday to 149.47 per US dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said rate hikes are “nearing” in a Nikkei interview published Saturday in Tokyo.
The yen got an earlier boost from Tokyo inflation accelerating more than expected in November, increasing speculation over a possible December rate hike.
Month-end flows are also weighing on the dollar as well as traders cutting their bets on the greenback further advances, according to Helen Given, a foreign-exchange trader at Monex.
“Traders have spent the last month going long dollar against the Group-of-10 currencies on election risks and news from the incoming administration,” Given said. “Now they see the actual nominations and curtail their long dollar bets.”
Speculative traders boosted their bets on dollar gains in the week ending Nov. 19 to the most bullish level since late June, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data show. They switched to long dollar bets mid-October. The CFTC will report new data Monday. BLOOMBERG
