Most Canadians view GST break as ‘purely electoral’: poll

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OTTAWA — The Liberals’ Christmas GST holiday and promise of a $250 cheque for workers appears to have put them on voters’ naughty list, with a new poll suggesting Canadians overwhelmingly view the policies as “purely electoral,” while also showing support for the Liberals has dropped five points since last month.

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If the Liberals thought their recent announcement of a two-month GST break on a host of food, drink and other popular holiday items as well as the promise of $250 cheque to millions of “working” Canadians would endear them with the electorate, the new Postmedia-Leger poll suggests the strategy backfired.

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Survey respondents said they were nearly three times more likely to say the measures made them “less likely” to vote Liberal (22 per cent) than more likely (eight per cent), whereas a majority (65 per cent) said the policies would not change their vote.

The poll also found that seven in 10 respondents thought the two measures are mainly attempts “to get people’s vote,” whereas only one in five said they were “good measures” that will help people “cope with inflation.”

“Seventy per cent of respondents are taking a pretty cynical view of these measures and I think that reflects on the ballot. People kind of recoil at that sort of stuff,” said Leger vice-president Andrew Enns.

Less than a third of respondents said the measures would do much to help to them. Less than a third also said they would wait until after the GST break takes effect after Dec. 14 to take advantage of it for their holiday shopping.

“We’ve seen a lot of different governments in their sort of last year in office, and they’re unpopular, trying to do a number of things to increase their popularity,” Enns said. “Very rarely does it have the desired effect.”

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In fact, the Liberals’ unpopularity has apparently only worsened. Over the last month, the poll shows support for Justin Trudeau’s party dropped five points to 21 per cent, further widening the gap with the Conservatives, who are now at 43-per-cent support.

The NDP appears to be the largest benefactor of the Liberals’ drop, gaining four points and bringing support for Jagmeet Singh’s party (19 per cent) to nearly even with Trudeau’s.

Enns said the decline in Liberal support probably isn’t entirely attributable to dissatisfaction with the GST holiday and cheque giveaway, but it was certainly a key factor.

On the flip side, the NDP’s call to expand eligibility for the $250 cheque to retirees, people with disabilities and other groups who are unable to work appears to have endeared them with the electorate, Enns noted.

The poll suggests a significant majority of Canadians (72 per cent), and an even larger portion of Liberals (79 per cent), agreed that the $250 should be extended to those groups.

That could put additional pressure on the Liberals to expand the cheque giveaway program before it’s tabled in Parliament, something even members of the government have called for.

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“One of the things that’s come through fairly clearly with these new measures is the NDP position that the rebate cheque should go out to a much broader population … and I think that may have shifted a little bit of support,” Enns said.

“It puts the government a bit on the defensive, and from a popularity standpoint, that’s not a good position to be in,” Enns said, adding that the NDP’s pressure to expand eligibility “probably shone an additional negative light” on the policy.

Overall poll results show fewer than one in three respondents said the GST break (32 per cent) and $250 cheque (30 per cent) would be financially helpful. A slightly larger proportion — 35 per cent for the GST break, 42 per cent for the cheque — said the measures wouldn’t help at all.

But a deeper dive into the data suggests both measures’ helpfulness differs widely between age groups. Young Canadians (18 to 34) were at least two times more likely to say the two measures would be helpful compared to respondents aged 55 years and older.

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The poll also suggests that the GST and HST break on food, alcohol and items such as children’s clothing and toys that kicks in on Dec. 14 will have no impact on most holiday shopping.

One in two respondents said the GST holiday would “not change” their holiday shopping time, whereas nearly one in three said they will try to do some or most of their shopping after the tax break kicks in.

“The impact is pretty fleeting,” Enns noted.

Fully half of respondents said they’d have preferred a temporary, two-month holiday of the federal carbon tax over the GST break.

The polling was done between Nov. 29 and Dec. 1 with a sample of 1,532 Canadians via an online panel. While margins of error can’t be applied to online panels, a probability sample of this size would be plus or minus 2.50 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

National Post
cnardi@postmedia.com

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