GOLD is heading for one of its biggest annual gains this century, with a 26 per cent advance that has been fuelled by US monetary easing, sustained geopolitical risks, and a wave of purchases by central banks.
While bullion has ticked lower since Donald Trump’s sweeping victory in November’s US presidential election, its gains over 2024 still outstrip most other commodities. Base metals have had a mixed year, while iron ore has tumbled, and lithium’s woes have deepened.
The varied performances over 2024 highlight the absence of a single, overriding driver that’s steered the complex’s fortunes, while also putting the spotlight on how metals, both base and precious, may fare next year. For 2025, investors are focused on uncertainty around US monetary policy, potential frictions from Trump’s presidency, and China’s efforts to revive growth.
Gold’s strong gains this year – which have seen the metal set a succession of records – may signal a possible shift in the market’s dynamics given they have come despite a stronger US dollar and rising real Treasury yields, both typically headwinds.
The precious metal has been “as remarkable as it’s been relentless, making it my biggest market surprise of 2024,” David Scutt, an analyst at StoneX Group, said in a note. “The gold game looks to have changed.”
Other metals have struggled in large part because of China’s prolonged economic slowdown.
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The LMEX Index of six metals on the London Metal Exchange is on track for a modest annual gain, with softer Chinese demand offset by flashes of supply stress – especially in copper and zinc – that may linger into 2025.
Iron ore has slumped as weak construction activity plunged China’s steel industry, the world’s biggest, into crisis mode with little relief in sight. Futures in Singapore are down about 28 per cent over 2024.
Lithium – used to make batteries – is on track for a second steep annual decline as a serious and ongoing global supply glut was compounded by turbulence for the electric-vehicle industry.
In Monday’s trading, spot gold fell 0.6 per cent to US$2,606.50 an ounce, compared with an October peak above US$2,790; iron ore futures closed 1.8 per cent higher at US$100.60 a tonne in Singapore; and copper fell 0.8 per cent at US$8,910 a tonne on the LME. BLOOMBERG
