Doug Ford crushes the competition

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The biggest story to come out of the Ontario election so far is the inability of the opposition parties to make any meaningful gains against Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives.

Ford called a snap election in hopes of winning a “strong mandate” to protect the province from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. Marit Stiles’ NDP, Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals and Mike Schreiner’s Greens have all tried repeatedly to shift Ford’s election narrative, but have failed miserably thus far.

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A new Postmedia/Leger poll conducted from Feb. 7-9 confirms this analysis. According to the survey, the PCs are out in front with 47 per cent support, followed by the Liberals (26 per cent), NDP (17 per cent), Greens (six per cent) and the New Blue Party (two per cent).

The PCs are leading in four out of five provincial regions, according to Nanos Research. The one exception is Toronto, where the Liberals have eked out a small lead (38.5 per cent to 37.6 per cent). But in all honesty, it doesn’t make a difference if the PCs lose Toronto, as it hasn’t been a significant factor in the party’s electoral fortunes in decades.

Sure, things could change before election day on Feb. 27, but it seems highly unlikely that Ontario’s political barometer will suddenly turn to the left.

Ford’s election strategy seemed rather unwise at the start of the campaign. The popular premier was in the middle of his second straight majority government. In the 2022 election, he received one of the largest mandates in Ontario history.

Why would he take a calculated risk to spend an estimated $189 million to go back to the voters early so they can rally behind his plan to tackle Trump’s tariffs? Well, it appears his roll of the dice is paying off.

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Leger found that 59 per cent of Ontarians and 79 per cent of PC voters “approve of Premier Ford’s response to President Trump’s remarks on trade tariffs and his suggestion that Canada should become the 51st state.” Moreover, the poll revealed that “Ontarians’ impression of Doug Ford has improved by 19 per cent since the start of the election, a three-point increase since last week.”

If this trend continues, Ford could receive a greater percentage of the popular vote than the did in the last two elections. (He won 40.5 per cent in 2018 and 40.8 per cent in 2022). His party could also win more than the 79 seats it had when the Ontario legislature was dissolved, and could possibly overtake former Liberal Premier David Peterson’s record-setting 95 seats in 1987.

How has Ford achieved this? He’s successfully defended Canada’s interests in this tariff war, both at home and on American television networks. He’s on board with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s tariff-for-tariff approach and would consider cutting energy exports to the United States, saying that it’s a “tool that we have in our toolbox,” but has consistently pointed out that he would strongly prefer to avoid this.

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He also went to Washington this week and appeared before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, where he praised Trump as “one of the best negotiators in the world,” but also emphasizing that Canada and the U.S. are “stronger together.”

And although Ford’s main emphasis is on tariffs, this doesn’t mean he’s completely ignored other issues affecting Ontario voters. His PC government earmarked $1.8 billion before the election to connect Ontarians with local primary care providers. He’s promised a $2-billion fund that will pay for water and wastewater located near new housing projects.

Tolls will be removed from Highway 407’s public portions, and a new expressway will be tunnelled under Highway 401. The 5.7 cent per litre cut to the provincial gas tax will become permanent.

The opposition parties have also released an assortment of campaign promises. Crombie proposed eliminating the provincial land transfer tax for first-time home buyers and removing middle-class housing development charges, for example. Stiles would bring in 3,500 new doctors, hire 15,000 nurses and buy back the private portion of Highway 407.

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Yet most of these promises haven’t resonated with the electorate, and few Ontarians are probably even aware of what these leaders have actually suggested.

In a real sign of desperation, Crombie actually challenged Ford to compete against her in the gym. “I’m happy to challenge him any time on his turf or on mine,” she said at a campaign stop on Monday. “My turf’s the gym, so if he wants to come at me and we’ll have a competition in the gym and maybe we’ll do push-ups. What do you think?”

Ford and his team, like most sensible Ontarians, thought it was an incredibly stupid stunt. It showed that Crombie was “not a serious leader,” the PC party noted. If this is the best she can come up with when she’s down in the polls, her political goose is cooked.

Not that Stiles and Schreiner are any better. Their political goose has been badly burnt in both cases, and Ford will undoubtedly aim to increase the oven temperature even further in the campaign’s final two weeks.

National Post

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