NDP sees ‘deadly’ slide as Conservative and Liberal support stabilizes

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OTTAWA — For the first time since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation last month, a new poll shows Canadian politics experiencing a rare phenomenon: stability.

A Postmedia-Leger survey found the Conservatives leading with 41 per cent support, the Liberals in second with 33 per cent support and the NDP’s support plunging to 11 per cent.

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The poll found NDP support falling three percentage points since last week, with a one-point rise in Conservative support and a two-point rise in Liberal support.

“If you’re the Conservatives, it’s good news because the shifting seems to be plateauing right now. If the election were held today it would be Trudeau against (Conservative Leader Pierre) Poilievre,” said Sébastien Dallaire, Leger’s executive vice-president of Eastern Canada.

“Right now, voting intentions have moved significantly in recent weeks, and this is the first poll where we see a little bit more stability,” he said.

While both the Liberals and the Conservatives could find good news in the survey, the NDP’s decline marks a five percentage point decrease in support over the past two weeks.

“The slide for the NDP has continued,” Dallaire said. “The NDP has been on this deadly steady downward trajectory. It’s as if voters now are looking into who’s going to be in the best position to defend us against (U.S. President) Donald Trump.

“We have two contenders at this point and (NDP Leader) Jagmeet Singh hasn’t been able to invite himself to the party,” said Dallaire.

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In September, Singh ripped up his supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals that was keeping the minority government in power, in an attempt to untangle his party from the unpopular incumbents. In return, he weathered attacks from both the Conservatives and Liberals and has been sagging in the polls ever since. Trudeau’s resignation in January sent the NDP poll numbers tumbling even further.

In December, Leger’s voting intentions survey put the Liberals at 21 per cent support and the NDP at 19, with the Conservatives dominating with 43 per cent support. This marks a 12-point increase for the Liberals and an eight point decrease for the NDP over two months.

“They are benefiting from the fact that they are in power right now, and they are in charge of defending Canada against the tariff threats coming from the United States,” Dallaire said. “There’s a Trump eclipse happening right now so it’s much harder for opposition parties to be seen.”

Poilievre tried to wrestle the spotlight back on the weekend with a large “Canada First” rally that rebuked Trump for his tariff threats, arguing that Canadians will “bear any burden and pay any price to protect the sovereignty and independence of our country.”

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Along with Trump, the Liberal leadership race has also scrambled Canadian politics.

According to the Postmedia-Leger poll, when asked about their voting intentions if leadership front-runner Mark Carney were to be leader of the Liberal party during an election instead of Trudeau, support for the Liberals grew by six points.

“If an election were held today, it’s almost tied when you introduce Carney to the equation… It’s hypothetical. A lot of things need to happen for these numbers to materialize. The Liberals’ voters don’t really know Mark Carney right now,” Dallaire said

But with the Liberal leadership vote looming on March 9 and tariffs from United States dominating the headlines, Dallaire said Canada’s political climate is shifting rapidly.

“Donald Trump has a lot more impact on voting intentions right now than whatever the parties are doing here… I would be cautious about even trying to say where numbers will be in two weeks or three weeks because they might shift. It depends on what happens in the U.S.,” said Dallaire.

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