Is Mark Carney Alberta bound? Locals say don’t count on it

Article content

OTTAWA — With the Liberals enjoying a rare polling bump in Western Canada, some have wondered if the currently seatless Prime Minister Mark Carney could mount a run in his home province of Alberta in the imminent federal election, expected to be called just days from now.

Article content

Article content

But locals say, just because it’s theoretically possible for a surging Carney to eke out a win somewhere in Edmonton or Calgary, doesn’t mean it’d be a good idea for him to try.

Article content

“Mark will be getting pulled in 100 different directions in the next several weeks and he’d have to ask himself whether knocking on doors in Edmonton would be the best use of his time,” said Dan Arnold, a data analyst and longtime participant in Alberta Liberal politics.

Arnold said Carney should be wary of the siren call of home, pointing to the recent fate of Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, who ran unsuccessfully for a seat in her hometown of Mississauga in last month’s provincial election.

“This is a pretty common dilemma with new leaders: do you run somewhere safe where you don’t have local roots, or do you run somewhere riskier where you do have that personal connection to the community?”

“Running in Alberta would tell a real story about his roots and about wanting to bridge the gap,” Arnold conceded.

Carney leaned heavily into his hometown roots at his January campaign launch in Edmonton, which was held in a small auditorium in the city’s west end, near the outdoor rink where he grew up playing hockey.

Article content

Article content

“I’ve been in the room next door many times,” Carney told supporters referring to his old dressing room.

He also took a thinly-veiled shot at Alberta Premier Danielle Smith over her trip to Mar-A-Lago, Fla., to meet U.S. President Donald Trump days earlier.

Carney was born in Fort Smith, NWT., but moved to Edmonton as a child, spending his elementary and high school years in the Alberta capital.

If Carney opts to run in his old hometown, the most natural fit would be Edmonton Centre, a politically moderate urban riding that includes his old Laurier Heights neighbourhood. Poll aggreggator 338Canada had the district listed as a likely Liberal hold on Tuesday.

One hitch is that the riding already has a Liberal candidate: scandal-ridden ex-employment minister Randy Boissonnault.

While there is precedent for a seatless leader pushing out a nominated candidate — Stephen Harper famously bumped later Rebel News founder Ezra Levant from a plum Calgary riding in 2002 — this would be a delicate move for Carney to try to execute.

A source close to Boissonnault said that he’s been the riding’s nominated candidate since 2023 and has no plans to step aside.

Article content

Another possible landing spot for Carney would be the newly created riding of Edmonton Southeast, which 338Canada also lists as likely Liberal.

Home to multiple ethnic enclaves, including part of the heavily South Asian Mill Woods neighbourhood, Edmonton Southeast is one of the province’s few majority nonwhite districts.

Arnold said that Carney’s lack of familiarity with hands-on ethnic outreach could make it hard for him to navigate the riding’s internal dynamics.

“In a riding like Edmonton Southeast, with a large multicultural population, direct, face-to-face engagement with different cultural communities tends to be paramount,” said Arnold.

“Carney would be hard-pressed to make those connections in the window of a six or seven week election campaign.”

Edmonton Southeast resident Arundeep Sandhu, who has previously vied for a United Conservative Party nomination in the province, says that the Conservative party’s focus on bread-and-butter issues like crime and the cost-of-living is resonating with locals.

“(Conservative Leader Pierre) Poilievre is talking about things people are seeing in their daily life,” said Sandhu.

Article content

“They want their kids to have a bright future and see it slipping away.”

Sandhu noted that more than 11,000 people turned out for the Conservatives’ local nomination meeting last week, where local lawyer Jagsharan Singh Mahal was chosen as the party’s candidate.

Carney’s path to office would be more challenging in Calgary, where he could either run in Calgary Skyview, a northwestern district left vacant by the recent electoral distribution, or try to take out a Conservative MP in one of the more moderate downtown ridings.

One winnable riding for Carney would be Calgary Centre, where Liberal Kent Hehr road the coattails of Justin Trudeau to victory in 2015.

Arnold said that Carney was unlikely to run in Calgary, given his lack of a personal connection to the city, but added that surging Liberal support could help him recruit a star candidate or two in the city.

National Post
rmohamed@postmedia.com

Get more deep-dive National Post political coverage and analysis in your inbox with the Political Hack newsletter, where Ottawa bureau chief Stuart Thomson and political analyst Tasha Kheiriddin get at what’s really going on behind the scenes on Parliament Hill every Wednesday and Friday, exclusively for subscribers. Sign up here.

Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.

Article content