The one chart that explains the Liberal party’s polling resurgence

Article content

OTTAWA — A new poll from Abacus Data shows Canadians have completely changed their view of the federal government’s performance in the wake of former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement inJanuary.

In just three months, the number of Canadians who disapprove of the federal government’s performance has fallen by 40 percentage points. It explains why the Liberals have undergone a historic polling resurgence as the federal election campaign kicks off this week, with voters appearing to have granted the party a clean slate with new leader Mark Carney.

Article content

The poll found the Liberals boasting a one-point lead over the Conservatives nationally. With 38 per cent support, the Liberals are up two points from the previous week and the Conservatives, at 37 per cent support, are down two points from the previous week.

“When it comes to the federal government’s approval rating, there has been a complete reset of impressions. Today 41 per cent approve of the Carney government’s performance compared with 25 per cent who disapprove,” wrote David Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data. “Just look at the shift in only a matter of weeks.”

Whether the change in the federal government’s approval rating is driven by Trudeau’s resignation in early January or a rallying effect caused by U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs is hard to untangle. It could also be the combined effect of both events happening around the same time.

Article content

Article content

The online poll of 2,000 eligible voters was conducted from March 20 to 25, with respondents selected from partner panels using the Lucid exchange platform. It was both commissioned and conducted by Abacus Data, which weighed the result by census data.

The poll also found the Liberals are at 40 per cent among Canadians who are certain to vote, compared to 37 per cent for the Conservatives. When asked to predict who will win the election, Canadians now believe for the first time that the Liberals are the favourites. Forty per cent of Canadians now think the Liberals will win, compared to 34 per cent who think the Conservatives will win.

One consistent and unsurprising finding in the poll is that Trump is deeply unpopular with Canadians. His disapproval rating now sits at 78 per cent, up 20 percentage points from December. His approval rating among Canadians is at 12 per cent.

Article content

“There’s a sense that many voters have let go of lingering grievances tied to the old Liberal leadership, creating fresh space for Carney’s message to take root,” wrote Coletto, who also issue a warning to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre on campaign messaging.

“Litigating the Trudeau era appears less and less effective as public attention pivots to where each party will lead us next—especially in the face of growing global volatility and threats posed by Donald Trump’s presidency,” he wrote.

National Post

Get more deep-dive National Post political coverage and analysis in your inbox with the Political Hack newsletter, where Ottawa bureau chief Stuart Thomson and political analyst Tasha Kheiriddin get at what’s really going on behind the scenes on Parliament Hill every Wednesday and Friday, exclusively for subscribers. Sign up here.