xG IN THE PREMIER LEAGUE: Manchester United lost 1-0 to Arsenal on the opening day of the season, but it certainly isn’t all doom and gloom for the Red Devils – while things are remarkably sunny on the blue side of Manchester too
The 2025-26 Premier League season has officially kicked off with all 20 teams having played their opening matches. Manchester United suffered a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal on Super Sunday in arguably the biggest game of the weekend, while Manchester City looked rejuvenated as they secured a 4-0 triumph over Wolves on Saturday evening.
By that point champions Liverpool had served notice of their title intentions, Arne Slot’s men winning 4-2 against Bournemouth on Friday night thanks to late goals from Federico Chiesa and Mohamed Salah. If Chelsea are to be contenders, they’ll need to be much better than their goalless stalemate with Crystal Palace, where VAR controversy stole the headlines.
So, it’s one week down and 37 rounds of matches to go before this season’s climax. But before we move forwards, with help from stats specialists Opta, we’ve taken a look at the opening weekend of action and compiled a table based on the expected goals for each team. Expected goals (xG) is a metric calculated based on the value of opportunities and shots on goal from each Premier League team and has become a widely-used measure to evaluate teams and performances. It provides an estimate of the number of goals a team should have theoretically scored.
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Unsurprisingly it is City who top the xG table after their thumping win at Molineux. They registered 2.5xG and also boasted the biggest xGD (expected goals difference) from the opening weekend matches, at 1.9. Wolves don’t sit bottom of the xG table however because at least they offered an attacking threat.
Instead, it’s Aston Villa, who drew 0-0 with Newcastle, who had the least to show – in a goalscoring sense – from the weekend. Newcastle’s defensive performance, statistically in terms of xGA (expected goals against) was the best of the opening round.
Spurs, 3-0 winners over Burnley, are second with an xG of 2.3, slightly ahead of Liverpool and newly-promoted Leeds United (2.1); Daniel Farke’s men defeated Everton on Monday night thanks to Lukas Nmecha’s controversial penalty.
Despite failing to score in their loss to Arsenal at the weekend, United registered an xG of 1.5 with new signings Bryan Mbeumo (£71m) and Matheus Cunha (£62.5m) both having opportunities, while star striker Benjamin Sesko made his debut (£73.7m). Arsenal boasted an xG of 1.3 in their win, but the majority of that came via their winner, Riccardo Calafiori turning in on the goal-line after Altay Bayindir’s error. It really is a case of take away that moment and that game, as a whole, looks completely different.
The Red Devils return to Premier League action this weekend as they head to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham, where Ruben Amorim will hope their finishing is a little bit sharper. City are making the journey to London too, to face Tottenham. Arsenal host Leeds before Monday night’s mouthwatering meeting between Newcastle and Liverpool at St James’s Park.
xG Premier League table
- Manchester City: 2.5
- Tottenham Hotspur: 2.3
- Liverpool: 2.2
- Leeds United: 2.1
- Nottingham Forest: 1.8
- Bournemouth: 1.7
- Chelsea: 1.6
- Manchester United: 1.5
- Brentford: 1.5
- Brighton: 1.5
- Newcastle United: 1.4
- Arsenal: 1.3
- Burnley: 0.9
- Everton: 0.8
- Fulham: 0.8
- Sunderland: 0.8
- Crystal Palace: 0.7
- West Ham United: 0.6
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: 0.6
- Aston Villa: 0.2
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Sky Sports discounted Premier League and EFL package
Sky has slashed the price of its Essential TV and Sky Sports bundle ahead of the 2025/26 season, saving members £192 and offering more than 1,400 live matches across the Premier League, EFL and more.
Sky will show at least 215 live Premier League games next season, an increase of up to 100 more.
