A national travel association in the United States says spending by visiting tourists is projected to fall to just 80 per cent of pre-pandemic levels this year, a drop of $5.7 billion from last year. And Canada is a big part of the reason.
“Total inbound travel spending is forecast to fall 3.2 per cent to $173 billion for the year,” the U.S. Travel Association says in its
. “Significantly fewer visits from Canada are the primary driver of this decrease, and the volume of visits from countries other than Canada are expected to be flat,” it adds.
According to the association’s numbers, last year saw 20.2 million Canadians visit the United States, down slightly from 20.5 million the year before, but an increase from the previous three years, during which the pandemic slowed travel worldwide.
However, the group predicts only 15.7 million visitors from Canada this year, a drop of 4.5 million. And its long-range forecast suggests it will take until 2029 for those numbers to surpass 20 million again.
Meanwhile, arrivals from Mexico this year are expected to increase to 17.9 million from 17 million last year. And overseas visits are projected to drop slightly, to 34.2 million this year from 35.2 million the year before. This means that any net loss in the number of visitors is almost entirely the result of fewer Canadians visiting the U.S. this year.
The news isn’t all bad, however. The association predicts that total travel spending — business, leisure and domestic — will increase modestly for each of the next five years, though it will take several years for all of those numbers to reach pre-pandemic levels.
“International inbound travel is projected to decrease in 2025 for the first time since 2020, but to resume growth in 2026, driven by U.S.-hosted events such as the FIFA World Cup and America 250 celebrations,” the report notes.
Still, the group remains cautious about its hopes for future travel. “Despite lowered growth expectations, risks remain,” it says.
On the domestic front: “Consumer uncertainty remains significant, and if broader economic conditions deteriorate, travel is likely to decrease as well.”
In terms of visitors from abroad, it adds: “the U.S. risks further decreasing international inbound visits based on potential increases in visa fees, extended wait times for visa applications and renewals, and negative sentiment towards the U.S. in key markets.”
During Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to the U.S. last month, a reporter asked U.S. President Donald Trump: “What do you say to Canadians that don’t want to go to the U.S. now because of your 51st state talk, because of the trade war, the tariffs, and the fear of also being detained at the border?”
Trump did not answer the question directly,
: “It’s something that will get worked out. There’s still great love between the two countries.”
Meanwhile, some U.S. tourist destinations have taken it upon themselves to reach out to woo potential Canadian visitors.
Kalispell, a city of 25,000 in Montana, about 125 kilometres south of the B.C. border, recently released the
, which provides discounts on accommodations, tourist attractions and shopping. (Canadian ID required; expires Jan. 16.)
“We miss you, Canada,” the city says on its website. “If there’s one thing we know about Montana and Canada, it’s that we’ve always been friends. For the last several months, our countries have been going through some things. But there’s one thing we know and it’s this – we miss you.”
The site adds: “While we wish we could make everything okay between us again, we know that things aren’t that simple. But we also know that we can’t continue to sit by and do nothing. Which has led us to this – our Canadian Welcome Pass.”
Last summer, the city of Burlington in Vermont announced it would rename one of its central avenues from
Church Street to Canada Street
until Labour Day (or Labor Day as it’s known there).
And the state of California rolled out an entire
campaign, with television ads and a logo featuring a maple leaf in the centre of a heart, superimposed over the state shape.
Whether these initiatives will coax Canadians back remains to be seen. Data from
show that visits by Canadians to the U.S. fell 23 per cent in the first seven months of 2025 compared to the same period last year. And polls
that Canadians are wary of crossing the border.
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