Bets on a US reduction on Wednesday have surged to around 90% in the past two weeks
[HONG KONG] Asian markets struggled to maintain their early momentum on Thursday (Dec 4), even after the latest batch of US data reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for a third successive time next week.
While Wall Street rose for a second day after a minor sell-off on Monday, regional traders moved a little more tentatively as worries over extended valuations in the tech sector continued to linger.
Bets on a US reduction on Wednesday have surged to around 90 per cent in the past two weeks, after several Fed officials backed such a move saying supporting jobs was more important than keeping a lid on elevated inflation.
The need for more action was further stoked by data from payrolls firm ADP showing 32,000 posts were lost in November, compared with an expected rise of 10,000, according to Bloomberg.
“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said.
The reading was also the most since early 2023 and is the latest example of a stuttering labour market.
“Right now, the data argues for additional Fed funds rate cuts. US labour demand is weak, consumer spending is showing early signs of cracking, and upside risks to inflation are fading,” Elias Haddad, of Brown Brothers Harriman, wrote.
Markets in Asia stumbled as they struggled to match New York’s advance.
Tokyo advanced with Sydney and Manila, but Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, Singapore, Wellington and Taipei were all down.
Still, Pepperstone’s Michael Brown said in a note: “Path continues to point to the upside, with the bull case remaining a very solid one indeed, and with participants seeking to ride the coattails of the rally higher, especially amid the increased influence of FOMO/FOMU flows as we move into the end of the year.”
However, while market players remain confident that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates into the new year, economists at Bank of America still had a note of caution.
“The most immediate source of volatility remains the US Federal Reserve,” they wrote.
“While inflation has moderated and the trajectory of policy easing is intact, uncertainty around timing persists. Any delay in rate cuts could remain a source of volatility.” AFP
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