England v New Zealand: World Cup 2026 warm-up – live
Key events
… and on that very subject, this is great fun / dangerously addictive. Fiddle around, and find out how quickly the draw can get all out of whack when just one of the leading contenders fails to win their group, as they did when I ran my model. Oh Spain, that last-minute equaliser for Cape Verde so costly! The knock-on effect was an all-Iberian quarter-final clash with Portugal, who swept them aside just as they did in the Nations League last year. Portugal went on to the final, where they were beaten by Turkey, who had surprised Germany in the semis. I had Scotland making the quarters, as well, so I wouldn’t rush out to the bookies and lump big on any of this. But yes, great fun.
… so having talked about not getting too far ahead of ourselves too soon, here’s a piece about England’s route to glory, as determined by Opta and their big calculator. Hey, we’re nothing if not a broad church.
Preamble
Let’s be honest with ourselves and each other: this really doesn’t matter that much. Not only is it a World Cup warm-up game, contested by two teams trying out a few things and making sure nobody pulls up lame, it’s also a World Cup warm-up game between England and New Zealand … and history suggests those two nations aren’t much of a match.
But first up, consider the state of play as is. England will go into the tournament as third-favourites to win, behind just Spain and France and ahead of five-time winners Brazil and reigning champions Argentina. New Zealand meanwhile made it to the finals having beaten Tahiti, Vanuatu, Samoa, Fiji and New Caledonia in qualifying, to the cumulative score of 29-1, and have subsequently lost eight of their last ten matches, the latest an embarrassing 4-0 defeat by Haiti. Their only win during that sequence was an admittedly good-looking 4-1 victory over Chile … who went down to ten men after 27 minutes.
And then there’s our good old friend The Past. England and New Zealand have officially met twice previously, both matches held within the space of five days in the summer of 1991. Graham Taylor’s team won both games, 1-0 and 2-0, Gary Lineker, Stuart Pearce and David Hirst doing the damage. There were another six unofficial games in the sixties: between June 1961 and June 1969, England won every one of them, running up an aggregate score of 35-2.
So, y’know. But then England’s last two outings weren’t that impressive – a 1-1 draw with Uruguay and a 1-0 defeat to Japan, both at Wembley – so it’s probably best for everyone not to get too far ahead of themselves. Yet despite the generally tepid nature of pre-tournament warm-ups, and with all their concomitant line-up experiments and substitutions, this game tonight should be a shoo-in for Thomas Tuchel’s team. Hey, if they don’t win, the internet won’t explode … but it may start gently rocking and convulsing with mirth. Not that anyone should be too euphoric/embarrassed. Because let’s be honest with ourselves and each other: this really doesn’t matter that much. Kick-off is at 9pm BST. It’s on!
