UK has ‘no future’ if it fails to act on ecosystem collapse threatening national security

Members of parliament have demanded full publication of an explosive report by the UK’s spy leaders that found the collapse of ecosystems overseas would have catastrophic consequences for the UK’s national security, warning that the UK has “no future” if the findings are not urgently acted on.

Despite growing concerns for the UK’s food security, likely to be worsened by the third heatwave this summer currently afflicting the UK and swathes of the northern hemisphere, the government has refused to publish the full report, which has circulated among defence officials for more than a year.

The report paints a devastating picture of severe food shortages, price rises, migration, political destabilisation and possible war, resulting from the collapse of ecosystems, fuelled by the human-induced climate crisis and over-exploitation, as the Guardian has previously revealed. Food shortages could result within five years.

MPs on the environmental audit committee, who held a hearing on the report on Wednesday afternoon, also warned that the government was failing to “join the dots” between the national security threat posed by the climate crisis and the collapse of species, and swingeing cuts to the overseas aid and climate finance budgets.

Mary Creagh, minister for the Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs, told MPs at the hearing that a redacted 14-page version of some findings, published after repeated freedom of information requests in January, should provide enough information. The Cabinet Office, also responsible for the cross-government report, refused to send a minister or official.

Toby Perkins, chair of the committee, said he was “disappointed” not to see the full version. “It’s a disappointing signal, and it would be a positive sign if we could cooperate on a response to the findings,” he said. “The minister clearly does appreciate the scale of this crisis. But I remain of the view that the government has more to do to grasp the urgency of the moment.”

Chris Hinchliff, the Labour MP, and a member of the committee, contrasted the £15bn to be added to the defence budget with the lack of funding to protect critical ecosystems. “The government can summon billions of pounds for new military hardware when the defence sector calls for it. We need an equally decisive mobilisation of investment to restore the natural world on which we rely for our food, water, and clean air. Without these essentials our country has no future,” he warned.

“Every critical ecosystem across our planet is on a pathway to collapse with an irreversible loss of function, and this poses huge threats to our national security. This looming crisis demands urgent action,” he added, citing findings in the unpublished report. “[We need] recognition from every part of government about how important preventing global biodiversity collapse is for the future of our society.”

Adrian Barclay, the Green party MP, said: “If the government is serious about security it makes no sense to be cutting the international development and climate finance budgets which are crucial to tackling these fundamental threats. It’s outrageous for the government to refuse to let MPs see the full report. How can we possibly scrutinise whether the government’s response to these grave risks is adequate?”

The report by the joint intelligence committee and other government departments, revealed by the Guardian last October, shows that the UK will face catastrophic consequences from the collapse of key ecosystems in other countries. These include the Amazon rainforest, which scientists fear is reaching a “tipping point” triggered by deforestation and rising temperatures, which would turn the ecosystem from a huge absorber of carbon dioxide into a net source of carbon.

Food shortages would be almost certain to result from the decline of ecosystems overseas, the report found, as would a big increase in global migration, with the potential to fuel unrest. Among the most alarming findings was that armed conflict up to the level of nuclear war was also a potential, though less likely, consequence.

The report was supposed to be published at an event last October, attended by King Charles, in the Natural History Museum. But at the last minute publication was pulled, at the behest of Downing Street.

Ministers at the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, and the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, also tried to have the report released at the Cop30 summit in Brazil, but that was also prevented. Insiders said this was down to the former adviser to Keir Starmer, Morgan McSweeney.

The Guardian revealed in February that the UK’s climate assistance to poor countries would be slashed, with a ringfence for nature spending scrapped, and projects from the Congo to Latin America and Asia losing out.

Creagh told the hearing of the Environmental Audit Committee on Wednesday that the government was “laser-focused” on using the diminished finance available to protect nature. She pointed to £6.7bn that the government is planning to spend on nature and climate, with an added aim of “mobilising billions” from the private sector.