Battle between Conservatives and NDP expected in Winnipeg byelection
The NDP expects to hold the seat that has been orange for most of the last 30 years
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OTTAWA — Winnipeg voters can expect a fierce battle in the city’s Elmwood—Transcona riding as voters head to the polls today in a federal byelection.
The NDP is trying to hold onto the seat that has swung orange for most of the last 30 years in the face of an intense challenge from the Conservatives, who have been intent on growing their appeal to working Canadians.
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Heading into Monday’s race, a senior NDP source speaking on the condition they not be named told National Post they know the race is a fight, but was still expecting to win. Conservatives are expecting to make big gains and are bracing for a close result.
Philippe Fournier of 338Canada.com, which publishes electoral projections, said the New Democrats should hold the seat but the margin of victory will send an important signal about the health of the party heading into the next general election, which must happen no later than October 2025.
As of Monday, the website suggested the race was a “toss up.”
The Conservatives last held the seat from 2011 to 2015, which was the last time the party was in power and the only time it secured a majority government under former prime minister Stephen Harper.
Successive public opinion polls show the Conservatives to be in similar territory today.
The byelection will be the first time in nearly a decade that the Blaikie name, a family whose roots run deep in the community, will not appear on the ballot. The contest was triggered after former MP Daniel Blaikie announced he was resigning. His father, the late Bill Blaikie, had represented the area for two decades starting in 1988 under a different riding name.
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Leila Dance, the leader of a local business improvement association, is running for the New Democrats against Colin Reynolds, an electrician and union member, who is the Conservative candidate.
Six candidates are on the ballot in total.
Conservative MPs from across Manitoba have descended on the riding since the byelection was called, as have many from the NDP. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre staged a rally, while Singh has visited multiple times.
On the platform X, Opposition House Leader Andrew Scheer posted a photo of himself on Monday evening working the phones and urging people to contact the campaign in Winnipeg to find a way to the polls.
The Tories are trying to make the case to voters in the NDP stronghold that a vote for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is a vote for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, thanks to the New Democrats’ supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals, running ads and plastering lawn signs with the words “sellout Singh.”
Singh terminated the deal on Sept.4, which Poilievre chided as a stunt to try and boost the party’s electoral chances just as advanced voting got underway in the Winnipeg byelection, along with another race in Montreal.
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Poilievre has spent the weeks since challenging Singh to vote non-confidence in the government, which Singh has not committed to do, saying he would instead deal with matters vote-by-vote.
Singh said he ended the deal with the Liberals after Trudeau proved too “weak” to stand up to “corporate greed.” The NDP’s MPs say the agreement proved useful to get the government to pass its priorities like pharmacare and dental care, but believe it is now time to outline the party’s vision for change against the Conservatives.
Faced with the risk of losing Elmwood-Transcona, Singh has said he intends to lead the NDP into the next election, shrugging off the possibility that a loss could lead to questions about his leadership.
Polls close tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET.
National Post
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