New Russia sanctions on hold as Hungary blocks EU package ahead of fourth anniversary of Ukraine war – Europe live
Morning opening: New Russia sanctions on hold
Jakub Krupa
The European Union is increasingly unlikely to reach an agreement on the new, 20th package of sanctions against Russia ahead of tomorrow’s fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as Hungary continues to block the package.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas admitted this morning that “there is not going to be progress” on this issue today, as Budapest continues to block the adoption of the sanctions.
“We are doing our utmost to have the sanctions package … through … and we are looking for ways how we can do it. But as we have heard some very strong statements from Hungary, … I don’t really … see they are going to change this unfortunately today,” she said.
Hungary opposes the proposed measures – as well as the payment of the €90bn loan for Ukraine – as part of its escalating dispute with Ukraine about oil transit using the Druzhba pipeline.
Hungarian foreign minister Péter Szijjártó said on Sunday that “until Ukraine resumes oil transit to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline, we will not allow decisions important to Kyiv to move forward.”
It also comes just six weeks before the key parliamentary election in the country, which could see its pro-Russian prime minister Viktor Orbán ousted after 16 years in power.
The embattled leader – currently trailing 10 points behind the opposition leader, Tisza’s Péter Magyar – increasingly turns to anti-Ukrainian rhetoric to falsely allege a conspiracy between Kyiv and Brussels to remove him from office and talk about the risk of war expanding to Hungary.
The failure to agree on the new package of sanctions would be politically embarrasing for the bloc as its leaders, including the commission president Ursula von der Leyen, plan to travel to Kyiv on Tuesday to mark the anniversary.
I will bring you all the key lines from Brussels here, as well as other stories from across Europe, as we expect Rob Jetten to be sworn in as the new Dutch prime minister, Finland’s Alexander Stubb to meet France’s Emmanuel Macron in Paris, and hear from the European Parliament on the future of the EU-US trade deal.
It’s Monday, 23 February 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
Key events
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Modern warfare has dramatically changed ways in which wars are fought, Zaluzhnyi says
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Ukraine’s former commander-in-chief, UK ambassador Zaluzhnyi about to speak in London
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EU’s message on US trade is ‘deal is a deal,’ spokesperson says
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EU interested in ‘returning to stability and predictability’ in trade with US
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EU needs clarity on US trade after supreme court ruling
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Hungary’s block of €90bn loan for Ukraine would breach principle of loyal cooperation, EU says
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Merz says he expects Trump to respect EU-US deal struck last year
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European parliament set to pause implementation of EU-US trade deal amid uncertainties over tariffs
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Russia’s Putin ‘not winning war’ in Ukraine, Finland’s Stubb says
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‘Cannot be otherwise,’ Macron says as he hopes to see EU loan for Ukraine, Russian sanctions agreed
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Finland’s Stubb expected at Élysée for talks with Macron soon
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Confusion reigns on US tariffs after last week’s supreme court ruling
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Ukraine ‘hates Hungary’ and pursues ‘very hostile’ policies, Hungarian foreign minister says as he lashes against Kyiv, Brussels
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Rob Jetten becomes youngest-ever Dutch prime minister at helm of minority government
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20th package of sanctions only matter of time, French minister insists
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‘We cannot proceed like this,’ Lithuania’s Budrys expresses frustration with Hungary
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Failure to adopt sanctions would make Russia ‘happy,’ Estonian foreign minister says
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Hungarian government seeks to create, exploit anti-Ukrainian hostility in election campaign, Poland’s Sikorski says
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Morning opening: New Russia sanctions on hold
Zaluznhyi says the rise of unmanned or uncrewed systems, supported by AI, is further changing the frontline situation.
He discusses this using an example of a swarm of unmanned drones flying in formation, controlled by humans but further supported by AI.
Zaluznhyi also says that nuclear weapons are not as much of a gamechanger as people make them to be, and are instead like “a fig lead of Atlas’s body, disguising the true capabilities of the one who possesses it.”
He also says that ballistic missiles remain “the most expensive ones in a war of attrition,” and while they are very expensive to produce, they require “even more expensive” defence systems.
He also discusses the limited use of air force in the war, as Russia’s theoretical huge advantage over Ukraine in this area proves to be of limited use as its planes rarely venture deep into Ukrainian territory for fear of being shot down, with their role dramatically changing as a result.
Zaluznhyi also says that any country fighting a war needs to be put on “a war footing,” which he says remains “the greatest challenge for Ukraine.”
He says Russia has successfully done that, and “we experience the consequences of this move every day and every night,” as “it is almost impossible to stop such a military steamroller.”
But he says traditional defence industrial models with centralised factories and long supply chains “are no longer fit fore purpose,” as they create “a lot of criticial vulnerabilities,” but are also insufficiently flexible.
He says that in Ukraine’s case, it’s energy sector has been exposed as particularly vulnerable.
“Protecting energy facilities becomes as important as protecting territory,” he says.
Zaluznhyi says that “the ultra expensive precision weapons that were a real gamechanger in the 20th century have been replaced by weapons of attrition,” which are cheap, mass produced, and deplete at a high rate.
He says that changes the calculation of what is needed and “calls into question the ability of even resource rich countries to wage long wars against smaller ones.”
He says economic resilience and energy supplies also play a key role so countries can “maintain military potential over time in the face of constant tensions, complex logistics, and accelerated technological change.”
Modern warfare has dramatically changed ways in which wars are fought, Zaluzhnyi says
Zaluzhnyi says that modern warfare – and future warfare – has dramatically challenged previous ideas of what fighting a war was like.
He says it integrates unmanned and robotic systems, distributed sensor networks, and all sorts of electromagnetic solutions, further fuelled by artificial intelligence.
He says that “a robotic kill zone” extends at least 25 kilometers deep from the frontline, with deeper strikes affecting logistics.
He says that the modern warfare has also changed the way armies mobilise troops and manage them, with lower numbers required, as focus shifts to technology – or “continous process of ensuring and maintaining technological superiority over the enemy” – instead.
“Technological evolution towards the robotisation of warfare has offered an alternative that allows for the preservation of combat effectiveness while radically reducing human involvement and as a result, human losses,” he says.
Zaluzhnyi opens up the speech by explaining that he wanted his words reach not just policy experts, but also people in bomb shelters back in Ukraine, as he wants to offer his insight into the war so far.
But (speaking in English, so far) he says he will say nothing to give journalists a sensational headline.
He says he will focus on speaking about the war, how it has evolved and changed over time, and whether we are ready to face this new reality.
He then switches to Ukrainian.
Ukraine’s former commander-in-chief, UK ambassador Zaluzhnyi about to speak in London
We will be now shifting our focus from Brussels to London, as Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and current Ukrainian ambassador to the UK, is about to speak at Chatham House.
In a rare public appearance just a day before the fourth anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, he is expected to offer his thoughts on the state of the war and what’s next for Ukraine.
It’s also good opportunity to remind you about this brilliant long read by Shaun Walker on the build up to the invasion in 2022, which also includes some lines on Zaluzhnyi, who some believe may have some political aspirations too…
EU’s message on US trade is ‘deal is a deal,’ spokesperson says
EU’s message on EU-US trade boils down to “a deal is a deal,” Gill says.
“The most important thing in there, I would say, is five words: ‘a deal is a deal’. Both sides have agreed to and indeed have a duty to honour their part of the agreement we made with the US.
So now we are simply saying to the US, it’s up to you to clearly show to us what path you are taking to honour the agreement.”
EU interested in ‘returning to stability and predictability’ in trade with US
Gill adds:
“We’re talking to all relevant interlocutors here in the EU and with our global partners.
When we have a clear picture on precisely what the implications of the Supreme Court ruling are for the US, what steps they intend to take, what measures they intend to put in place, arising from that ruling, then we will have the clarity we need to make a proper assessment and take further decisions.
But to be clear, at this point in time, we do not have that, and it’s not up to us to provide it.”
He then says:
“We’re interested in is returning to a situation of stability and predictability as quickly as possible.
We have a framework for doing that, which is the EU-US joint statement, and we look forward to our American counterparts explaining to us precisely what is happening so that we can return to a situation where companies in the EU and in the US can continue doing what they do best trade, invest, create jobs, create prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic.”
EU needs clarity on US trade after supreme court ruling
EU trade spokesperson Olof Gill has just been asked about the state of transatlantic trade.
He says:
“I think it’s very fair to say that full clarity on what these new developments mean for the EU-US trade relationship is the absolute minimum that is required in order for us as the EU to make a clear eyed assessment and decide on next steps.”
He adds:
“There is engagement ongoing with the US, but more is required for us to understand the full picture here.”
He says the EU’s trade commissioner, Maroš Šefčovič, will speak with G7 trade minister later today, EU ambassadors, and tomorrow with the parliament’s trade committee.
“So we’re very clear about what needs to happen here. The US needs to tell us precisely what is going on. Our intention is to honour and continue implementing the, aspects of the agreement we made with the United States on our side. And by the same token, we expect them to be able to tell us precisely what is happening in order that they can continue implementing their side of the agreement.”
Energy spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen also backed Ukraine in the escalating conflict with Hungary, saying that the Druzhba pipeline at the centre of the dispute was damaged by Russia – and Ukraine can’t be blamed for that.
“Ukraine has committed to repairing the pipeline, and the decision on the timeline is for them to make,” she says.
Hungary’s block of €90bn loan for Ukraine would breach principle of loyal cooperation, EU says
The European Commission’s chief spokesperson Paula Pinho has blasted Hungary’s attempt to block the €90bn loan for Ukraine, stressing that as it has been signed off by the European Council, that decision should be respected.
She says that there was only “one and only condition that three member states would not participate financially in the programme.”
“This condition has been met, and therefore, we expect all leaders to honour their commitments. And not respecting those … would be a breach of loyal cooperation,” she says.
She later added that the EU expected all leaders, “including prime minister Orbán,” to “abide by [their] political commitments.”
Merz says he expects Trump to respect EU-US deal struck last year
Lisa O’Carroll
in London
The German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has said he expects Donald Trump to respect the tariff deal struck last July at his Scottish golf course.
As confusion reigns across the globe as to whether the new 15% tariff rate, announced by the US on Saturday, would be implemented for the UK, the EU and others, Merz spokes person said:
“We expect the US to follow the Supreme Court of the US decision with clear policies,” he said.
The EU on Sunday called on the US to honour the July agreement. “A deal is a deal,” it said.
The new 15% tariff rate Trump says he will impose from tomorrow flows from powers in the 1974 Trade Act, a different legal framework to the reciprocal tariffs Trump imposed unilaterally last year on dozens of countries.
They can only hold for 150 days and must then get congressional approval.
Jakub Krupa
The European Commission’s press briefing is about to start, and they will no doubt address this point.
Let’s listen in. I will bring you the key lines here.
European parliament set to pause implementation of EU-US trade deal amid uncertainties over tariffs
Lisa O’Carroll
in London
The European Parliament is set to pause the process of ratification of the trade deal withe Donald Trump later this afternoon, the lead negotiator of the conservative group of MEPs has said.
The parliament has already paused the deal once, over Trump’s threat to Greenland, but unpaused earlier this month with a vote of all MEPs expected in March to formally ratify the agreement.
Bernd Lange, chair of the International Trade Committee of the European Parliament, has convened an extraordinary meeting on Monday following the supreme court ruling in the US striking down the tariffs as illegal.
Željana Zovko, the lead trade negotiator in the European People’s Party group on the US deal told Bloomberg (£) that “we have no other option” but to delay the approval process to seek to clarity on the situation.
Russia’s Putin ‘not winning war’ in Ukraine, Finland’s Stubb says
Stubb is responding – and impressively, in French (beginning with a funny, and possibly impossible to translate in any sensible way, idiom describing his fluency).
He picks up some of the same themes, including on Arctic security – “not just in Greenland, but also in Norway, Sweden, and of course Finland”.
On Ukraine, he says that Putin “is not winning the war, but he is not [ready to] make peace” either.
He says the war has been an unmitigated disaster for Russia, which is “losing a lot of soldiers” and facing “an economic failure,” and so Europe should continue to support Ukraine.
He also highlights the bilateral ties between Finland and France, before apologising for his French, which was pretty spot on, if you ask me.
Macron seems to agree as he enthusiastically applauds his guest and gives him a big hug, before they disappear for further talks.
‘Cannot be otherwise,’ Macron says as he hopes to see EU loan for Ukraine, Russian sanctions agreed
Macron is speaking now.
He says that their talks will focus on the question of supporting Ukraine as the country enters the fifth year of full-scale war defending itself from the Russian aggression.
He says he is determined to see the EU make progress on the €90bn loan for Ukraine and the 20th package of sanctions against Russia and see the political decisions made at the last European Council meeting implemented.
“It cannot be otherwise,” he says.
He also touches upon the issue of Arctic security, including a call for the EU to do more in this area, and the broader push to invest more in Europe’s defence and to reform the EU’s competitiveness.
Finland’s Stubb expected at Élysée for talks with Macron soon
Finland’s president Alexander Stubb is expected at the Élysée Palace any moment now for his talks with France’s Emmanuel Macron.
The pair – prominently involved in helping Ukraine navigate a tricky relationship with the new US administration under Donald Trump – meets just a day before the fourth anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion on the country.
I will bring you their press statements before the talks here.
Confusion reigns on US tariffs after last week’s supreme court ruling
Lisa O’Carroll
in London
Confusion continues as to whether Donald Trump’s new 15% tariffs kick in tomorrow in the UK or the EU, despite the US trade representative Jamieson Greer assurances that nothing changes for the 20 odd countries the US has already agree tariff deals.
The new president of the British Chambers of Commerce, Andy Haldane, told the BBC he believed that the 15% tariffs did apply from tomorrow unless the government hears otherwise.
“We are 10% [tariff rate with the US]. If he [Trump] follows through tomorrow, that will be 15% and that will mean UK sits towards the bottom the league table in terms of who’s been made worst off by the measures of the weekend,” he told the BBC Today programme.
And the German confederation of businesses, BDI, called on the EU to “quickly approach the US and provide clarity on tariffs and trade rules”.
BDI president Peter Leibinger said:
“These decisions create significant new uncertainty for transatlantic trade. Businesses on both sides of the Atlantic urgently need planning certainty and reliable trading conditions. The EU, with the support of the German government, should quickly approach the United States and provide clarity on tariffs and trade rules. Only through dialogue can transparency be established and trust in transatlantic economic relations be secured.”
On Sunday Greer told CBS that the US will not back out of tariff deals it has already sealed with countries around the world, including the UK, the EU, Japan, Switzerland and others.
“We want them to understand these deals are going to be good deals,” Greer said. “We’re going to stand by them. We expect our partners to stand by them.”
In a strongly worded statement, the EU called on the US not to walk back the July deal.
“A deal is a deal,” it said.
“As the United States’ largest trading partner, the EU expects the US to honour its commitments.”
