Oil at three-week high as US-Iran peace talks stall – business live
Oil at three-week high as US-Iran peace talks stall
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy.
The new week begins with the oil price rising, again, as the stalled US-Iran peace talks threaten to extend disruption to crude supplies from the Middle East.
Brent crude has jumped around 2% this morning to a high of $107.97 a barrel, the highest level since the two sides agreed a ceasefire on 7 April.
Prices rose after Donald Trump cancelled his plan to send US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for ceasefire talks in Pakistan on Saturday, saying “too much time” has been “wasted on traveling”.
The US president then doubled down on this position, telling Fox News:
“If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us.
You know, there is a telephone. We have nice, secure lines.”
However, there are signs of positive developments… Axios are reporting that Tehran has given the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and end the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a later date.
So, geopolitics will continue to dominate the markets, at the start of a Big Week, with several major central banks taking interest rates decisions in the days ahead.
As Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies, explains:
Talks have stalled between US and Iran as Iran has stated that it will not negotiate till the US blockade remains in place, while US has stated that it doesn’t know who it is negotiating with.
Our base case remains that we are moving towards a deal but tail risk of short term escalation remains. It is not in the interest of either parties to escalate further. The latest Iran proposal shows the wiliness of Iran to negotiate, while Trump already wants a deal. Hence, we believe that we will eventually move towards a deal, but with some speed bumps along the way.
The agenda
Key events
European gas prices are rising a little at the start of trading.
The month-ahead UK gas contract is up 0.8% at 112.8p a therm – up from 80p before the Iran war began but below the high of 180p hit in mid-March.
Continential European gas is up a similar amount; the next-month Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures contract has risen to €45.21 per megawatt hour.
Japan’s Nikkei hits record high over 60,000 points on peace talk hopes
Hopes of a breakthrough to end the Middle East conflict have pushed Japan’s stock market to a new record high.
The Nikkei 225 index has ended the day at a new closing high, up almost 1.4% to hit 60,537 points.
Stocks jumped after Axios reported that Iran has given the United States a new proposal to end their war, which helped to calm nerves after president Trump cancelled his envoys’ trip to Pakistan for peace talks.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, says:
The mood is slightly better this morning than it was into the weekend, as Iran reportedly offered the US a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a move that could pave the way for the continuation of peace talks between the two parties.
Predicted house price growth in UK halved due to Middle East conflict
UK estate agent Knight Frank has halved its house price growth predictions for this year, citing the economic shocks caused by the Iran conflict.
Knight Frank now expects UK house price growth of 1.5% this year, down from a forecast of 3% last September. Growth is then expected to rise to 3% in 2027, down fro 4% before.
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, says:
The Middle East conflict has pushed mortgage rates higher, dampened buyer sentiment and fuelled speculation about how the government will respond to the resulting economic shock.
This hat-trick of headwinds means we have revised down our near-term house price forecasts.
Oil at three-week high as US-Iran peace talks stall
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy.
The new week begins with the oil price rising, again, as the stalled US-Iran peace talks threaten to extend disruption to crude supplies from the Middle East.
Brent crude has jumped around 2% this morning to a high of $107.97 a barrel, the highest level since the two sides agreed a ceasefire on 7 April.
Prices rose after Donald Trump cancelled his plan to send US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for ceasefire talks in Pakistan on Saturday, saying “too much time” has been “wasted on traveling”.
The US president then doubled down on this position, telling Fox News:
“If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us.
You know, there is a telephone. We have nice, secure lines.”
However, there are signs of positive developments… Axios are reporting that Tehran has given the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and end the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a later date.
So, geopolitics will continue to dominate the markets, at the start of a Big Week, with several major central banks taking interest rates decisions in the days ahead.
As Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies, explains:
Talks have stalled between US and Iran as Iran has stated that it will not negotiate till the US blockade remains in place, while US has stated that it doesn’t know who it is negotiating with.
Our base case remains that we are moving towards a deal but tail risk of short term escalation remains. It is not in the interest of either parties to escalate further. The latest Iran proposal shows the wiliness of Iran to negotiate, while Trump already wants a deal. Hence, we believe that we will eventually move towards a deal, but with some speed bumps along the way.
The agenda
