UK economy was growing faster than expected in February before Iran war began – business live
UK economy smashes forecasts with 0.5% growth in February
Newsflash: The UK economy was growing much faster than expected before the Iran war jolted global activity.
UK GDP rose by 0.5% in February, new data from the Office for National Statistics shows. That’s much stronger than the 0.1% growth the City had expected.
The ONS reports that services and production both grew by 0.5%, and construction grew by 1.0% in February.
January’s GDP data has been revised up too – to show 0.1% growth, rather than stagnation.
In normal times would be a significant boost to Rachel Reeves.
However, this data is somewhat historic, as the Middle East conflict is reshaping the prospects for the global economy this year, driving up energy and fuel prices, and borrowing costs, and hurting confidence.
Earlier this week the IMF cut its forecast for UK growth in 2026 to 0.8%, down from 1.3%.
Key events
How the services sector helped UK economy to smash forecasts
“Widespread growth” across the UK services sector helped the economy to expand strongly in February, by an impressive 0.5%.
Today’s GDP report shows that 12 of the 14 subsectors of the services economy grew during the month, helping services to grow by 0.5%.
“Administrative and support service activities” made the largest contribution (up 2.0%), due to a pickup in hiring activity.
The second largest positive contribution came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.7%).
Professional, scientific, and technical activities also contributed to the growth, with a rise of 0.8% in February 2026.
Chart: How UK growth was accelerating before Middle East conflict
ONS: Growth increased further in the three months to February
The UK economy also grew by 0.5% in the three months to February, helped by the end of the cyber-attack disruption at Jaguar Land Rover last autumn.
That’s up from 0.3% growth in the three months to January.
ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner says:
“Growth increased further in the three months to February led by broad-based increases across services.
“Within services, growth was driven by wholesaling, market research, hospitality, and publishing, which all performed well in the three months to February. Meanwhile car production recovered from the effects of the autumn cyber incident.
“Growth in services and production was partially offset by another fall in construction, albeit at a slower rate than previously, with leasing and intellectual property licencing also continuing to contract.”
UK economy smashes forecasts with 0.5% growth in February
Newsflash: The UK economy was growing much faster than expected before the Iran war jolted global activity.
UK GDP rose by 0.5% in February, new data from the Office for National Statistics shows. That’s much stronger than the 0.1% growth the City had expected.
The ONS reports that services and production both grew by 0.5%, and construction grew by 1.0% in February.
January’s GDP data has been revised up too – to show 0.1% growth, rather than stagnation.
In normal times would be a significant boost to Rachel Reeves.
However, this data is somewhat historic, as the Middle East conflict is reshaping the prospects for the global economy this year, driving up energy and fuel prices, and borrowing costs, and hurting confidence.
Earlier this week the IMF cut its forecast for UK growth in 2026 to 0.8%, down from 1.3%.
China’s economy beats forecast in first quarter
Economic growth in China has accelerated in the last quarter, in an encouraging start to the year for Beijing.
China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5%, year on year, in the first quarter of 2026, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today shows.
That’s 0.5 percentage points faster than in the fourth quarter of 2025,
The NBS says “The national economy got off to a good start”, explaining:
“The growth of production and supply accelerated, market demand continued to improve, employment was generally stable, market prices picked up moderately, and high-quality development advanced with new and positive momentum.”
Reeves gives more energy bill support to businesses as Iran war pushes up costs
Richard Partington
Rachel Reeves has announced an expansion of support for the most energy-intensive UK businesses, as they face soaring bills as a result of the Middle East conflict.
The chancellor said the long-promised British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) would be expanded to cover 10,000 companies, up from the 7,000 originally announced.
The scheme, which the government says will cut companies’ bills by up to 25%, will not come into operation until next year, although in a significant concession Reeves said support would then be backdated to this month.
The announcement was welcomed by business groups, but some criticised the fact the money would not arrive until next April, urging Reeves to bring support forward as they face a looming crisis as a result of the ongoing closure of the strait of Hormuz.
Introduction: UK February GDP report coming up
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Economic data inevitably has a shelf life, before it’s overtaken by new numbers. But it’s unusual to be out of date even before it’s released!
That’s the situation with the UK’s February GDP report, due to be released at 7am this morning.
It is expected to show some modest growth across the economy, with GDP forecast to have risen by 0.1% (according to the City consensus). Forecasts range from 0% to 0.3% growth.
But the conflict in the Middle East, which began at the end of February, means the UK economy is already in a new world – of higher energy prices, food inflation fears, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions.
The economy stalled in January, with no growth recorded (although this could be revised today). That, Deutche Bank’s Sanjay Raja says, was a “disappointed”, adding:
With the economy stagnating to start the year, we expect a rebound in February. We don’t discount an upward revision to January GDP either. Our nowcast models point to both a potential upward revision to January and some further upward momentum in February.
What do we see for February GDP? We see GDP expanding by 0.2% m-o-m, lifted by broad-based momentum across the services, production and construction sectors.
The GDP data comes as chancellor Rachel Reeves continues to attend the IMF and World Bank’s spring meeting in Washington DC, where she yesterday described the Iran war as a “mistake” that has destabilised the global economy.
The agenda
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7am BST: UK GDP report for February 7am
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10am BST: Eurozone inflation report for March
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1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless
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5pm BST: IMF holds debate on the global economy
