US 2026 midterm primary elections begin with key races in Texas and North Carolina – live updates
2026 midterm primaries begin with key races in Texas and North Carolina
Welcome to the start of the 2026 US midterms. Primary elections kick off in three states – Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas – and many seats are at stake, including candidacies for the US House and US Senate.
Tuesday’s results will determine who is on the ballot in November in these states. Voters are heading to the polls to select who they want to represent their registered party. There are dozens of elections, but Guardian is specifically watching a handful of races closely:
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In Texas, longtime Republican senator John Cornyn is fighting to retain his seat against two challengers: state attorney general Ken Paxton and US representative Wesley Hunt. Paxton, a conservative firebrand who has surged in recent polls, could reveal to the Republican party just how potent the Maga brand is.
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The Texas Democratic primary for US Senate is between US representative Jasmine Crockett and state representative James Talarico, a race that is seen as a strategic divide – their campaign styles could not be more different.
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North Carolina’s primaries could prove crucial to Democrats come November, as Republican senator Thom Tillis is retiring and they believe this is a major chance to flip a seat in the chamber. On the Democrats’ side, former two-term governor Roy Cooper is ahead in recent polling. Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair, leads the Republican field.
And while president Donald Trump is not on the ballot tonight or in November, these elections will be used as a bellwether for his policies and how voters have viewd the first year of his second term.
Right now, Republicans hold the House, the Senate and the presidency. Will US voters look to retain the status quo or change course? Stick with us as we take you through election night.
Key events
Lauren Gambino
I’m in Austin, where later tonight James Talarico’s campaign will hold its election night event.
The evening will cap a remarkable rise to national prominence for Texas state representative Talarico, who launched a Senate bid promising a “new kind of politics” that roots progressive policy in his Christian faith.
A 36-year-old former school teacher and seminary student, Talarico first splashed onto the national political stage during a walkout last year, when Democratic lawmakers fled the state to delay a Republican gerrymander sought by Donald Trump.
He is seen as the underdog in the primary race against congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, a progressive firebrand beloved by the anti-Trump resistance.
More than anything, the race is a test of style, personality and playbooks. The Democrats broadly agree on policy – and both will face an uphill battle to win the general election in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.
Polling diverges for Texas Democrats as Crockett loses early lead in closing weeks
Lauren Gambino
House representative Jasmine Crockett enjoyed an early lead in the Democratic race, with polls showing the congresswoman comfortably ahead of state representative James Talarico. But in the final weeks, as early voting got underway and Talarico enjoyed a boost in fundraising after a pulled appearance on the “Late Night With Stephen Colbert” went viral online, polls have diverged significantly. Some show Talarico leaping ahead of Crockett, while others show her firmly in first place.
One constant, however, is that Crockett draws overwhelming support from Black Democrats, while Talarico has consistently led among white liberals.
The outcome will likely be decided by Latino voters, who are expected to account for a quarter to one-third of the Democratic primary electorate.
Early voting shows sky-high enthusiasm on the Democratic side, with record-breaking turnout. At a polling station on the University of Texas campus in Austin, the line snaked through the student union building and out the door. Campaign signs for Crockett – Texas Tough – and Talarico lined a central campus thoroughway.
A poll worker announced that the wait was over 50 minutes. She directed anyone who’d rather not wait in the midday heat to take a free shuttle to another voting center with a shorter wait time.
Lauren Gambino
Texas voters are casting ballots for a slate of other federal, state and local offices.
As a result of redistricting, two sitting members of Congress are squaring off in the primary for congressional district 18, in what has become a referendum on generational change.
Among Democrats, representative Christian Menefee, 37, who is just weeks into his first term, is now facing off against representative Al Green, 78, who has served for more than two decades.
On the Republican side, representative Dan Crenshaw is potentially vulnerable to a right-wing challenge from state representative Steve Toth in the second congressional district while congressman Tony Gonzales is facing calls for his resignation from fellow Republicans after allegations of an affair with a former staffer who later killed herself. He has resisted calls to resign.
What to know about the Texas Democratic Senate primary
On the Democratic side of the Texas Senate primary, two rising stars in the party are going head to head with completely different playbooks.
US House representative Jasmine Crockett, the Associated Press notes, has made a name for herself through confrontation. She is a fierce critic of president Donald Trump. My colleague Lauren Gambino writes, “Casting herself as a ‘proven fighter’ who ‘drives the president crazy’, Crockett contends that high turnout among young voters and voters of color – not ideological moderation – is the key to winning statewide.”
Competing against her is Texas state representative James Talarico. While he might not have clout in Washington, he has surged in the latest polls off his moderate, God-loving approach that could work specifically in a state like Texas. Lauren writes that he has “crisscrossed the deep-red counties that voted for Trump, preaching a ‘politics of love’ that roots progressive policy in the teachings of his Christian faith. The 36-year-old former middle school teacher and current seminary student argues that the central divide in American politics is ‘not left v right’ but ‘top v bottom’ and says Democrats can rebuild trust in rural and suburban communities without abandoning their core values.”
Talarico received more national attention after CBS’ parent company Paramount refused to show his interview on the Stephen Colbert show. A poll from Emerson College released Sunday shows Talarico with a five-point lead over Crockett.
It’s important to note that Texas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate seat since 1988. Whoever wins the primary will still face a steep uphill battle to victory in November (just ask Beto O’Rourke).
What to know about the Texas Republican Senate primary
Let’s start with perhaps the biggest race of the night: the Texas Republican Senate primary.
The Texas Senate primary has become the most expensive ad campaign on record, according to analysis firm AdImpact, with the GOP establishment candidate’s campaign spending at least $69m of the $122m (this includes both parties). President Donald Trump has, notably, not endorsed a candidate in this race.
US senator John Cornyn is seeking his fifth term for a seat he has held since 2002. Cornyn serves on several Senate committees and was formerly the party’s whip in Washington until 2019. He has been defending himself throughout this campaign as being aligned with the president, but he may be viewed as less-aligned than at least one of his challengers.
Ken Paxton, the Texas state attorney general, is running a fierce campaign against the incumbent senator despite a history of scandals, both political and personal. Paxton has made a name for himself for spearheading conservatives’ legal battles, including trying to overturn the 2020 election results, expanding religion in schools, and partnering with the Trump administration to facilitate deportations. Polling has recently shown Paxton with a narrow lead.
And then there’s House Republican Wesley Hunt, a two-term congressman who may act as more of a divider-of-votes than having an actual chance to win the race. There is a chance he is a second-place finisher.
That said, if no candidate wins a majority, or more than 50%, the top two candidates advance to a primary runoff on 26 May.
2026 midterm primaries begin with key races in Texas and North Carolina
Welcome to the start of the 2026 US midterms. Primary elections kick off in three states – Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas – and many seats are at stake, including candidacies for the US House and US Senate.
Tuesday’s results will determine who is on the ballot in November in these states. Voters are heading to the polls to select who they want to represent their registered party. There are dozens of elections, but Guardian is specifically watching a handful of races closely:
-
In Texas, longtime Republican senator John Cornyn is fighting to retain his seat against two challengers: state attorney general Ken Paxton and US representative Wesley Hunt. Paxton, a conservative firebrand who has surged in recent polls, could reveal to the Republican party just how potent the Maga brand is.
-
The Texas Democratic primary for US Senate is between US representative Jasmine Crockett and state representative James Talarico, a race that is seen as a strategic divide – their campaign styles could not be more different.
-
North Carolina’s primaries could prove crucial to Democrats come November, as Republican senator Thom Tillis is retiring and they believe this is a major chance to flip a seat in the chamber. On the Democrats’ side, former two-term governor Roy Cooper is ahead in recent polling. Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair, leads the Republican field.
And while president Donald Trump is not on the ballot tonight or in November, these elections will be used as a bellwether for his policies and how voters have viewd the first year of his second term.
Right now, Republicans hold the House, the Senate and the presidency. Will US voters look to retain the status quo or change course? Stick with us as we take you through election night.
